Political shifts in West Asia are rarely calm or gradual; rather, they tend to be sudden, multilayered, and deeply interconnected. For decades, countries in the region have repeatedly witnessed how a single spark can alter the course of history.
Among them, the states closest to the United States and Israel—Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates—may appear to possess strong institutions and powerful support networks, but each faces underlying social, security, or political vulnerabilities that make the possibility of change—however limited—plausible.
It is now a well-known fact that Israel pursues “Greater Israel,” a map envisioning the territory of the ultimate “Jewish state.” This so-called Greater Israel includes territories of several Arab and regional governments, including large chunks of Jordan and Saudi Arabia. It also requires that other states remain in a constant state of internal chaos and unrest, ensuring Israel remains the undefeated power in West Asia.
Before October 7, and considering what has transpired in the two years since, the general understanding was that Israel would move toward dismantling order in U.S.-allied Arab states only after significantly weakening Resistance forces and toppling the Iranian government, as it needs Arab states to form a separate bloc against Tehran. However, after the regime struck Qatar this year, and the U.S. refused to protect the Persian Gulf nation despite Qatar hosting the largest American military base in the region, it is now also conceivable that Israel would move toward eroding regional Arab structures before achieving its goals with Iran and its allied forces. Furthermore, the U.S., even if averse to its own national interests, will be unable or unwilling to stop Israel.
There are certain gaps and vulnerabilities Israel can exploit in the four aforementioned countries. Any erosion of order in any of them would also have reverberations for Tehran. Iran must pay close attention to potentially relevant developments while also minding its own fight with Israel.
Jordan
For years, Jordan has defined stability through foreign aid, U.S. security assistance, and close ties with Israel. Yet the reality on the ground is more complex. Chronic shortages of natural resources, heavy foreign debt, high unemployment, and persistent social discontent have plagued the country. In recent years, waves of economic and political protests have shaken Jordanian streets.
The demographic makeup—including a large Palestinian population—combined with economic challenges and a widening gap between the ruling elite and society, creates pressures that could precipitate political change. Should such a shift occur, Jordan’s relationship with Israel would be the first area affected. Its shared border with the occupied Palestinian territories, the issue of al-Quds, and Jordan’s strategic role in West Bank affairs all magnify the significance of any transformation.
Severe instability might then prompt direct U.S. intervention or an Israeli attempt to manage the situation. Such actions could fuel new regional tensions while simultaneously disrupting Washington and Tel Aviv’s preferred security architecture. The accession of Jordan to Israel could very well happen at this time, similar to how the regime exploited the situation in Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad, occupying new points within the Arab country.
Jordan may appear quiet, but its fragile stability makes it a potential focal point for future change—one whose consequences would be immediately felt across West Asia.
Saudi Arabia
As perhaps the most important force in the Arab world, Saudi Arabia serves as a central pillar of the Persian Gulf’s security order. Its decisions regarding energy policy, relations with Israel, regional rivalries, and foreign affairs consistently produce effects far beyond its borders. Yet Saudi Arabia’s political and social structure is under mounting internal and external pressure.
In the past decade, rapid social reforms and sweeping economic restructuring have dramatically reshaped the kingdom. While these reforms are widely hailed and project modernization, they have also generated social tensions and hidden grievances. Economic challenges—including fluctuating oil revenues, heavy reliance on foreign investment, and the immense cost of megaprojects—place the country on a difficult path.
Internal rivalries among princes, shifts in foreign alliances, and Saudi Arabia’s reliance on U.S. military protection all introduce variables that could destabilize the system. A crisis of succession, political unrest, or external pressure could fundamentally alter the region’s balance of power.
For Iran, widespread instability in the kingdom would put the entire Persian Gulf at risk, triggering economic and security turmoil. Disruptions to global oil markets, increased foreign military presence, and intensified proxy conflicts could reshape the regional landscape.
Bahrain
Bahrain is the smallest state in the Persian Gulf, and its size magnifies the fragility of its political structure and social fabric. Limited political freedoms and tensions between the Shi’a majority and the Sunni ruling family have kept the country in a semi-crisis for years. Waves of protests in the past clearly illustrate this underlying unrest.
Saudi support for the Bahraini monarchy, the presence of the U.S. Fifth Fleet, and the country’s deep security cooperation with Israel all mean that Tel Aviv has a significant hand that could shape or influence potential political transformations. Several Hebrew media reports have suggested in recent years that Bahrain is not doing enough to please Israel, with the Arab country’s willingness to restore ties with Iran further unnerving the regime. Israel is unlikely to openly pursue regime change in Bahrain, but it could attempt to exploit internal discord, then use the need for containment as a pressure tool against the kingdom. Under such circumstances, however, tensions might go out of control.
Bahrain’s proximity to Iran could prove detrimental to Tehran at a time of disorder and chaos.
The UAE
The United Arab Emirates has long sought to project the image of a stable, modern, investment-friendly nation—and to a large extent, it has succeeded. Yet, like other regional actors, it is not immune to sudden political shifts. Perceived tensions between Abu Dhabi and Dubai, heavy reliance on global economic stability, and the UAE’s involvement in regional conflicts all create risks that could pressure its political system during crises.
In recent years, the UAE has forged close ties with Israel, expanded its security and intelligence cooperation, and taken active roles in regional conflicts. This alignment with the U.S. and Israel, combined with a highly globalized economy, makes the UAE vulnerable to economic shocks or geopolitical escalations. Should changes occur, the consequences would be far-reaching.
Despite the growing UAE-Israeli cooperation, a look at Hebrew media shows Israel is still longing for more—something regional states find difficult to fulfill due to increasing anti-Israeli sentiments among the populace in the past two years. Zionists want the UAE to form a deeper alignment with U.S.-Israeli priorities and distance itself from China, a country usually in Iran’s orbit. However, any significant change in the UAE would carry multifaceted implications for Iran, as the UAE ports are important to the country amid sanctions.
The need to prepare for an unpredictable future
The four countries analyzed here each play pivotal roles in West Asia’s political and security architecture. Their close ties with the United States and cooperation with Israel are a double-edged sword. While these ties offer them the illusion of security, they could, much like what happened to Qatar, become their weakest point in a potential standoff with Tel Aviv. Such a confrontation is deemed inevitable, whether in the long or near future, given Israel’s territorial ambitions and its pursuit of regional chaos.
In such an environment, accurately assessing possible trajectories, understanding the consequences of each scenario, and preparing timely responses are more essential than ever. Iran must not only worry about its own conflict but also be wary of Israeli attempts to bring other regional states down, as this could ultimately aid the regime in its goals against Iran.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: tehrantimes.com
