The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday’s and Monday’s NFL Week 14 slate.
SUNDAY
JETS +2.5 over Dolphins
Tyrod Taylor will start Sunday, and while I don’t love the matchup, I think the Jets’ defense has played well enough to back them again here at home.
Cold weather game for the Dolphins, there’s no way I’m trusting them here as road favorites even if it’s against the Jets. The Dolphins’ defense, in particular their secondary, is among the worst in the NFL, so I actually expect some decent offensive performances from the Jets in a cover.
RAVENS -5.5 over Steelers
We’re targeting Baltimore to cover easily this weekend. The Steelers’ offense is broken beyond repair: Pittsburgh is putting up just 5.1 yards per play, eighth worst in the NFL.
Even if the Ravens aren’t playing well, they’ve stayed mostly consistent in those categories this season. The Isaiah Likely goal-line fumble is extremely fluky, as are most turnovers. That’s giving us a Ravens discount on Sunday.
Take it and say thank you.
FALCONS +7 over Seahawks
My model loves the Falcons, showing some decent value on them in this game. My projected score from this game is 24.92 to 20.40 in favor of the Seahawks.
So you’re clearing at least two key numbers by grabbing the Falcons +7. Kirk Cousins leads the Falcons’ offense against an opportunistic Seahawks defense. It’s a hold-your-nose spot to be sure; it’s possible Atlanta just collapses under pressure.
Bengals +6 over Bills
It’s going to be absolutely freezing in Buffalo, but that’s no issue for Joe Burrrrrrrrow. The superstar Bengals quarterback has been winning big games for Cincinnati without much help for most of his career.
Now he gets Tee Higgins as well as Ja’Marr Chase back in the lineup as they look to keep their slim postseason hopes intact. My model shows no value in the game, with a projected score of 30.06 to 24.25. Burrow is 18-3 ATS as an underdog, for what that trend is worth.
BROWNS -4 over Titans
Low-scoring games are usually tough to back the favorite, but this Browns defense attacking the league’s No. 27 offensive line is too tasty to ignore. Myles Garrett and the elite pass rushers are going to have Cam Ward seeing ghosts for most of the day.
It’s not exactly a hammer spot considering it’s Ward vs. Shedeur Sanders, but the defense should carry the Browns at home. My model projects this spread at six for the Browns.
Betting on the NFL?
Commanders +2 over VIKINGS
Washington will roll this weekend. Jayden Daniels is back for Washington, while the Vikings get J.J. McCarthy back. It’s two quarterbacks who were in the same draft class but in totally different positions.
Daniels is dynamic and should be able to make plays against a decent Minnesota defense (No. 11 DVOA). The Vikings are No. 27 in total DVOA this year, behind the Commanders, who are No. 22 and are getting their best player back in the fold.
Saints +8.5 over BUCS
Not my favorite betting line, but the Saints have been good enough for me to target above all of the key numbers. The Saints head to Tampa Bay where we’re looking at plenty of rain on Sunday, which in theory would point to lower scores. The Buccaneers’ defense is allowing the most yards per play in their past three games (6.7), the worst in the NFL, while the Saints are actually 10th (4.7).
No way I’m taking Tampa Bay here. Saints cover.
Colts -1.5 over JAGUARS
My model loves the Colts here despite them falling off a bit in recent weeks. My model says the Colts should be five point favorites in this road spot in Jacksonville. Indianapolis has played poorly recently, but they’re averaging six yards per play in their last three games (fourth best).
The Jaguars’ defense has been stellar of late and they bottled up the run, but let’s see them do that to Jonanthan Taylor. Colts win.
BRONCOS -7.5 over Raiders
The Broncos are an 11.5-point favorite based on my model and are everything the Raiders aren’t. The Raiders have the No. 32 ranked offensive line and are putting up a putrid 3.7 yards per play in their last three games. That’s horrific and there’s little reason to expect that gets better.
The Broncos have the No. 1 rated defense in yards per play allowed (3.7).
PACKERS -6.5 over Bears
It’s critical to get this line under the full touchdown spread of seven, as Green Bay hosts Chicago. The Bears are coming off the best game of their season, but let’s not buy high on the Bears.
The Bears, even off the heels of a big win over the Eagles, are allowing 5.2 yards per rush attempt in their last three games, the third worst in the NFL. Josh Jacobs rolls over the Bears in a big win to help lock up the division.
CARDINALS +8 over Rams
The Rams are excellent, but I’ll take the road dog to keep this one close. Arizona’s defense, rated No. 14 in DVOA, should be able to keep this one close around a reliable Jacoby Brissett.
My model has this spread at 8.5 in favor of the Rams, but I’ll take the Cardinals. As long as they avoid turnovers this could easily be a field goal game at home.
Texans +3.5 over CHIEFS
The Texans’ pass rush is loaded and will really benefit from the Chiefs’ injuries along the offensive line. Houston is rated No. 8 in total DVOA, while the Chiefs are No. 6. Now with a healthy CJ Stroud at their disposal, the Texans should see their rating get an uptick.
It’s a playoff game for the Chiefs, but you can no longer bank on them winning these high pressure playoff-like games when Mahomes has to turn into Superma.
CHARGERS +2.5 over Eagles
I’d really feel better about the Chargers if I knew whether Omarion Hampton was returning for them this week. Still, I’ll take the points this weekend even despite the Chargers’ poor offfensive metrics since they lost some offensive line starters.
Still, Jalen Carter is out this weekend and their defense has played well sitting at top 10 in yards per rush attempt and yards per pass attempt allowed in their last three games.
Last week: 6-5-1
Season: 86-85-4
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: nypost.com
