The Florida Swing is known for volatility, and we got a healthy serving of it during the final throes of the Cognizant Classic on Sunday.
Standing on the 16th teebox with a 3-shot lead, Shane Lowry looked like a runaway winner. The Irishman was playing terrific golf up to that point, keeping himself out of trouble on a course that can wreck your day with one wayward swing.
And then he put one in the drink.
Two double-bogeys and a par later, Lowry completed what may well wind up as the worst collapse of the 2026 campaign.
It was a horrendous beat for anybody who backed Lowry at 19/1 before the tournament, but a stroke of outrageous fortune for those who got down on Nico Echavarria at 40/1. A good reminder of the highs and lows that come with betting on golf, especially during this part of the season.
We now move on to one of the best non-majors of the season: The Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Like the rest of the courses featured during the Florida Swing, Bay Hill has a bite to it. The iconic track played as the eighth-toughest on the PGA Tour in 2025, and was 10th in 2024.
Scottie Scheffler, who has captured two titles (2022 and 2024) in his last four trips to Bay Hill, is the betting favorite to lift the trophy at +320 odds.
Rory McIlroy is the only other golfer carrying single-digit odds at bet365 Sportsbook. McIlroy, who has a win and six top-10 finishes at Bay Hill, is +950.
It will take a serious effort to contend with Scheffler, McIlroy and the rest of the heavyweights on this track, but there are a few long shots worth serious consideration this week.
And don’t forget, Kurt Kitayama won this event as an 80/1 outsider just two years ago.
2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks
Viktor Hovland (40/1, BetMGM)
We’re getting a discount on Viktor Hovland because he missed the cut at this event last year. But that MC was part of a brutal run of form that saw the Norwegian miss the number three events in a row, leading to some speculation that he had the yips.
He put that notion to bed by winning the Valspar the week after missing the cut at the PLAYERS, which was his last MC in 2025.
If you look beyond his showing here last year, there’s a lot to like about Hovland’s profile for this event.
He’s had a decent start to 2026 with a T14 at the Dubai Desert Classic and a top-10 finish at the Waste Management, plus his overall record at Bay Hill is pretty solid. He finished second to Scheffler in 2022 and then followed that up with a T10 in 2023.
Betting on golf?
Keegan Bradley (75/1, bet365)
Calling him a course-specialist may be a bit of a stretch, but something about Bay Hill jives with Keegan Bradley’s game.
The St. John’s alum’s best results came way back in 2013 (T3) and 2014 (runner-up), but his recent history is also terrific. He’s finished 11th or better in four of his last five trips to Arnold Palmer’s playground, and he’s never missed a cut here, which is a stunning accomplishment considering he’s played this grueling tournament 13 years on the spin.
His current form is all over the place, but we know better than to let that get in the way of a bet on Keegan at this price on this track.
Jordan Spieth (75/1, bet365)
We are approaching the four-year anniversary of Jordan Spieth’s last PGA Tour victory, but it does feel like we’re getting closer.
Outside of a missed cut at the Waste Management, Spieth has been solid to kick off 2026. He finished T24 at the Sony, T29 at Pebble Beach and had his best outing with a T12 at the Genesis.
Things could continue to trend in the right direction this week.
Spieth has only played this event three times, but he’s got two top-five finishes in those outings. His most recent visit was in 2025, when he finished 30th.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: nypost.com
