2026 Masters expert picks to win, sleepers to watch at Augusta National

Rory McIlroy, fresh off his win last year at the Masters, walked into the press room and said he wanted flip roles to start the session. He had a question. 

“What are we all going to talk about next year?” McIlroy said. 

He laughed. Others did. The question referenced his long pursuit of a green jacket, and now that was finished.

But it’s not as if the Masters was done. They’re playing it again starting Thursday. So here goes, a subject entering this year’s event at Augusta National:

Is McIlroy going to repeat?

No one, of course, knows that answer ahead of Sunday. But below are themes that’ll come into play for him — and for you, being that this is a prognostication piece. 

McIlroy’s form: Entering this week, McIlroy has played four events this year on the PGA Tour and two on the DP World Tour. Here are his finishes:

–Dubai Invitational: tied for third 

–Hero Dubai Desert Classic: tied for 33rd 

–AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: tied for 14th 

–Genesis Invitational: tied for second 

–Arnold Palmer Invitational: withdrew before the third round 

–Players Championship: tied for 46th 

McIlroy’s back: About that withdrawal at the Arnold Palmer. A back injury, McIlroy said, forced it, and he returned the following week at the Players. But will it be an issue this week? On Sunday at the Players, McIlroy said he was encouraged by what he saw after 72 holes of play, and it’s worth noting that McIlroy will have gone four weeks without tournament play when the Masters starts, meaning he’ll be well rested. 

“Happy I got through four days and my body feels good,” McIlroy said after the Players final round. “I feel like my game sort of progressively got a little bit better as the week went on, even though the scores probably didn’t reflect it over the weekend. I hit the ball well. I just didn’t make anything on the greens.

“Happy to come through four rounds and feel like my body held up well. A couple little things to work on, but overall, not the week that I wanted. Just trying to take the positives.”

McIlroy’s inspiration: What does happen when you cross the finish line? McIlroy has said he’s been fighting that since last April. Maybe he’s found motivation this week. Maybe he’s still searching. 

“You know, I think mentally, I have to be comfortable with maybe this is going to be my best year ever,” McIlroy told RTE last year after being named the RTE Sportsperson of the Year. “Who knows? I hope it’s not, you know. I hope I still have many more great years ahead of me. But you know, no matter what I do going forward, I’m only ever going to be able to win my first Masters once. And I really enjoyed that. 

“And I’ve relished the opportunity to bring the green jacket around the world and show it off. It’s been a wonderful year, but I still think that I’ve got a lot more to achieve. So I’m still ambitious.”

With that, members of our staff have each made to-win and sleeper selections to assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league, or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook. It’s an enjoyable endeavor for us. Deploy it as you wish. 

On to our analysis. 

Masters picks to win, sleepers to watch for 2026

Alan Bastable 

To-win: Patrick Reed, +3,300. Easy to forget no player on the planet had a hotter late-January-into-early February than Reed, who in three consecutive starts in the Middle East won twice and finished runner-up in a playoff, all in the midst of his LIV Golf departure. He cooled off in two South Africa starts since then, but I still expect him to be a major threat at ANGC, where since 2018 all he’s done is win once and record four more top-10s.

Sleeper pick: Min Woo Lee, +4,000. Might be unfair to call the 25th-ranked player in the world a “dark horse,” but I don’t hear a lot of pundits talking up MWL as a green-jacket threat. He’s been excellent on Tour this season with seven cuts made in seven starts and three top-10s, and he’s made the weekend in three of his four Masters starts. This year, I expect him to contend on the weekend.

Josh Berhow 

To-win: Patrick Reed, +3,300. Hardly anyone plays better at Augusta National than Patrick Reed, who you probably forgot finished third last year. He hasn’t finished outside the top 40 in his seven starts there since he won in 2018, and four of those were top 10s. His past three starts at the Masters: 3rd, T12, T4. Throw in the success he had overseas a couple of months ago, and I like Patrick’s chances. (He’s my pick over a surging Matt Fitzpatrick.)

Sleeper pick: Russell Henley, +5,500. Henley very quietly finished top 10 in each of his past two major starts, and he’s had four top 10s in his past six major starts after just one in the previous 38. The point? He’s getting better on the big stage, and his game is in a good spot — top 20s in five of his seven starts this year and ranks 31st in SG: Approach and 14th in SG: Putting.

James Colgan 

To-win: Akshay Bhatia, +5,500. It feels like we’re due for an out-of-left-field green jacket winner, especially after our past five Masters gifted us the murderer’s row of Hideki-Scottie-Rahm-Scottie-Rory as winners. Akshay would be a reasonable choice to these ends — he’s played three months of impressively steady golf to start the year and is a lefty at Augusta National. Major no. 1 arrives for Akshay in 2026.

Sleeper pick: Keegan Bradley, +15,000. It feels like the golf gods owe him one after the way the Ryder Cup knocked him down in September. A Bradley win after all he’s been through over the past six months would be one of the best comeback stories in the sport.

Connor Federico  

Sleeper pick: Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, +25,000. Which of this year’s Masters rookies is most likely to succeed? The winner at Australia’s Augusta National feels like a good bet. Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen makes his first Masters start via a thrilling win in December’s Australian Open. The Dane vaulted into contention with his understanding of angles and strategy at Royal Melbourne, another Alister Mackenzie masterpiece, where every hole requires elite shotmaking and focus. The success Neergaard found at this World Top 10 course will help him again at another this April. Understanding is one thing, but execution is most important. With a crowd of 30,000-plus Aussies pulling for Cam Smith, Neergaard delivered an unlikely up-and-down to secure the biggest win of his career. He’s got what it takes in the big moments, but at the very least, I’ll be taking him to make the cut in his first Masters appearance. 

Alex Gelman 

To-win: Jon Rahm, +1,100. Rahm is going to win his second green jacket at the Masters. He’s playing some of the best golf of his career and seems to be in a great space mentally. Trust Rahm, take the Sun Devil and enjoy your winnings Sunday evening. 

Sleeper pick: Fifa Laopakdee, +100,000. Yes, it’s a massive long shot but don’t sleep on the junior from Arizona State. He punched his ticket to the Masters after winning the 2025 Asia-Pacific Amateur. He started his career at ASU by winning his first tournament and already has four collegiate wins, including a win three weeks ago at the Desimone Classic. 

Jack Hirsh 

To win: Tommy Fleetwood, +2,200. Fleetwood just needs the putter to heat up, and he’ll pick up where he left off in 2025. He’s placed in the top 10 in four of five events this season, and his performance with the new alignment aid seems to be going well in San Antonio. Now put him on perfect greens. I like where this is going.

Sleeper pick: Si Woo Kim, +6,600. His game sets up really well for Augusta, where lots of run-out should help equalize his length disadvantage. His game has been trending all year, and he’s missed just one cut in eight Masters appearances.

Jessica Marksbury

To-win: Bryson DeChambeau, +1,000. I’m going to take a break from choosing Scottie to win and add a little variety to my picks. I was also thinking about Brooks Koepka, but no — it’s gotta be Bryson, who has two things going for him this week: Momentum, after winning in back-to-back weeks on LIV; and positive playing history, with two top-6 finishes in his past two appearances. It feels like it could be Bryson’s time.    

Sleeper pick: Jason Day, +6,600. Not only does Day have two top-6 finishes this season (including a runner-up at the American Express), he’s also played well many times at the Masters, with five career top-10 finishes.

Zephyr Melton 

To-win: Ludvig Aberg, +1,600. He’s played great at Augusta in his first two Masters starts (second, seventh) and is in fine form with two top-fives in March and a third already in April. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Ludvig don the green jacket come Sunday evening.

Sleeper pick: Maverick McNealy, +10,000. Mav has played some steady golf this year, missing just one cut and finishing in the top 30 in every other event but one. He finished middle of the pack in his debut last year, but he’s got the game to stay in it over the weekend.

Nick Piastowski 

To-win: Brooks Koepka, +3,300. I love a good story line, and this is certainly that. But he’s been outstanding this year in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green, which is critical for Augusta. 

Sleeper pick: Jacob Bridgeman, +8,000. Let’s go back to the strokes gained stats, where we’ll find Jacob Bridgeman among the leaders in the putting category. The winner must navigate Augusta’s sloping putting surfaces. 

Josh Schrock

To-win: Justin Rose +3,300. It’s time for Rose to get it over the line at Augusta National. He has led or co-led the Masters nine times after the first three rounds, which ranks third after Arnie and Jack. Over the past 10 Masters, he is seventh in score to par at 18 under. Five of the other six have won at least one Masters in that time period. He’s playing well, has increased his ball speed, and the iron play remains immaculate. It’s time. 

Sleeper pick: Adam Scott, +6,600. Due to the small field, there aren’t a ton of good “sleeper” options. I’d probably take Rickie Fowler if he was in the field, but, alas, he’s not. So we’ll go with Scott, who played well at Riviera and has great course history at Augusta. Honorable mention to Jason Day. 

Josh Sens

To-win: Xander Schauffele, +1,400. In his eight Masters appearances, Schauffele has five top 10s. He doesn’t miss cuts, and he’s built for majors. Even last year, when his game slipped a gear, he finished eighth at Augusta. This year, he’s been showing steadily growing signs of life, with a third at the Players and a T4 at the Valspar in his past two events. Bottom line: An elite player and proven major winner is rounding into form, just at the right time.

Sleeper pick: Jason Day, +6,600. Yeah, I know. A past major winner at 66-to-1 isn’t exactly a sleeper. But I don’t see the point of going much lower on the board at the Masters, where long shots have about as good a chance of winning as I do of earning an overnight in the Crow’s Nest. A true dark horse simply isn’t going to come out on top at Augusta so I’m not going to waste a wager on one. As I see it, Day is as far down on the betting board as anyone with an outside chance at the green jacket. He’s got a strong track record here, including a T8 last year, and a T6 last week on a tough course was another good showing in what has been a decent season so far.

Johnny Wunder  

To-win: Jon Rahm, +1,100. Rahm has played the best golf in the world over the past nine months and he’s already established he can win here. His hitting stats are out of this world and if the putter is even relatively serviceable, I don’t see a scenario where he’s not in the final group and putting on the jacket again. 

Sean Zak 

To-win: Jon Rahm, +1,100. Rahm is going to win. He’s playing as good of golf as he’s played at any point in his life. And the last time he was this good, he won the Masters. 

Sleeper pick: Jake Knapp, +6,600. Knapp has been flying less under the radar recently, but he’s been one of the five or six best golfers in 2026. 

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