We’re inching closer and closer to the NFL Draft, but positions are still fluid.
The top two picks seem like a lock — Fernando Mendoza and Arvelle Reese appear to have the inside edge — but the rest of the top five is a bit more murky, depending on your preferred mock draft.
Even prediction markets and betting markets are split on which five players could have their names called first in Pittsburgh.
The five most likely players to go in the top five at prediction market Kalshi differ from the players with the shortest odds at bet365 sportsbook.
2026 NFL Draft top-five pick odds
| Player | Draft odds | Kalshi chances |
|---|---|---|
| Arvell Reese | -1800 | 93 percent |
| David Bailey | -275 | 78 percent |
| Sonny Styles | -160 | 49 percent |
| Jeremiyah Love | -155 | 65 percent |
| Francis Mauigoa | +200 | 44 percent |
| Reuben Bain Jr. | +240 | 20 percent |
| Carnell Tate | +250 | 32 percent |
| Caleb Downs | +350 | 13 percent |
| Spencer Fano | +550 | 69 percent |
| Monroe Freeling | +700 | 14 percent |
| Mansoor Delane | +850 | 18 percent |
The top two lineman in this year’s draft, Miami’s Francis Mauigoa and Utah’s Spencer Fano, stand out.
Mauigoa has +200 odds at bet365, but has the sixth-best chance to be a top-five pick at Kalshi.
The opposite is true for Fano, who has +550 odds at bet365 and a 69 percent chance to go in the top five at Kalshi.
ESPN’s latest mock draft from Peter Schrager has Mauigoa going fifth to the Giants and Fano going sixth to the Browns, but change sources and you get wildly different results.
NFL.com’s latest mock draft has Mauigoa going third to the Cardinals and Fano going 13th to the Lions.
Sporting News’ latest mock works in trades, which throws even more potential wrinkles into the mix.
Betting on the NFL?
Vinnie Iyer’s mock draft, the Commanders trade up to No. 3 to take Jeremiyah Love and the Titans take Rueben Bain Jr. at No. 4.
In that scenario, David Bailey who has the second-shortest odds at bet365 and second-best chance to go top-five at Kalshi would end up being picked seventh.
The axiom that the draft is crapshoot applies to anyone betting on it, too.
That said, it’s hard not to look at the two offensive lineman with plus-money odds and see the potential for a small bet that they jump into the top-five.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: nypost.com
