Week 9 closes in Minnesota, as the NFL’s highest-scoring offense takes on the league’s best defense on ‘Monday Night Football.’
Channel the cliché quote from The Dark Knight based on the irresistible force paradox.
“This is what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object.”
Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy scheme has held every Vikings (6-1) opponent to 22 points or fewer this season, while Joe Brady’s Bills (6-1) offense leads the league with 33.3 points per game.
Folks, we have ourselves a good old-fashioned grudge match, with oddsmakers penciling in the Bills as 3.5-point road favorites and the over/under set at 44.5 points.
Bills vs. Vikings prediction, best bet
Josh Allen and the Bills are unbeaten on the road this season at 3-0. The Vikings have the same record at home.
Minnesota fell to the Lions in Week 8, missing a shot at perfection and letting Detroit expose one glaring weakness within its top-ranked defense: its inability to stop the run.
Despite Flores pressuring Jared Goff on 89.7% of dropbacks, Jahmyr Gibbs broke out for 153 rushing yards, averaging 6.7 yards per carry. Overall, in their last three games, they’ve allowed 146.3 on the ground. This suggests Buffalo will deploy James Cook, the league’s reigning rushing champ and one of three backs averaging at least 100 yards per game this season, often in the game.
The other side of the coin is Carson Wentz returning under center for Kevin O’Connell, while Kyler Murray nurses a hamstring issue. It’s welcome news for Minnesota fans who have watched a sluggish, underwhelming unit get bailed out by their defense week after week.
Justin Jefferson’s best outing of the season came in Week 1, when Wentz fed him the ball. He caught eight passes for 92 yards and two touchdowns. Wentz has vowed to target Jefferson often, and that would be a smart move given the Bills’ defense ranks 26th in EPA per play (+0.09) and allows 254.7 passing yards.
Of course, you can’t play Joe Fagnano every week, but Buffalo had good practice against backups, limiting a pair of secondary signal callers in their 36-10 win over Baltimore last week.
It was a welcome sign for a defense that had given up 31 points to the Texans, 34 to the Rams, and 30 to the Raiders on the road. Teams that regularly give up 30-plus points usually lose, but Buffalo won all three games behind Allen and the offense’s heroics.
Minimizing turnovers will be essential for Allen when facing Minnesota’s relentless pass rush. Under pressure this year, Allen has a 66.7% completion rate, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt and throwing three touchdowns, though he has also suffered four sacks and thrown a pair of interceptions.
Through eight games, the Vikings rank second overall in sacks with 25 and lead the league in QB pressure rate at 73.1%.
However, looking back at their 6-0 start, four of those wins came against the Buccaneers, Dolphins, Colts, and Saints — not exactly the cream of the crop.
Betting on the NFL?
While their offense will certainly flow better with Wentz, their defense has not faced a player of Allen’s caliber under center who can ad-lib plays and operate efficiently near the goal line in sneak formation.
The perennial MVP candidate ranks No. 1 in rushing EPA, leads all quarterbacks with nine rushing touchdowns, and is showing no signs of slowing down.
The Play: Bills – 3.5 (+106, bet365) | Josh Allen to score a touchdown (-115, 53.5 percent, Novig)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Mike Turay is a sports journalist and editor who closely follows the NBA, NFL, college sports and UFC. He has demonstrated expertise in both NBA and NFL player prop bets for nearly three years. Mike is also highly knowledgeable about the sportsbook offer landscape, frequently trying and reviewing the latest apps and sites.
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