Victorian election hot seats: Dumped, demoted and nearly bankrupted: Why Pesutto keeps coming back

It was just six months ago in the regional electorate of Farrer that voters resoundingly chose David Farley to be their next elected official in Canberra and, in the process, delivered One Nation its first lower house federal MP.

Triggered by the resignation of former federal opposition leader Sussan Ley, the byelection result in Farrer not only broke 77 years of Coalition safety in the seat, but also sent an ominous warning to regional electorates across the border preparing for this month’s state election and staring down challengers from the populist minor party.

Taking in Albury, Griffith and Deniliquin, the expansive rural electorate of Farrer covers 126,563 square kilometres in the south-west corner of NSW. At its most southern point is the Murray River, where on the other side of the water sits the state electorate of Shepparton – an area that cuts plenty of similarities with Farrer.

Both seats count primary production as a key industry, have been long-time strongholds for the Coalition, and are home to voters that feel increasingly frustrated and left behind by the major parties.

Zareh Ghazarian, an associate professor of politics at Monash University, says electorates like Shepparton will be “critical” in determining Victoria’s next government.

“One Nation has traditionally done best in electorates that are in rural and regional parts of the community,” he says, noting that “some of the vibes from Farrer may influence how people respond just next door.”

The seat of Mildura is currently held by the Nationals by just 1.2 per cent. But even in neighbouring electorates like Ovens Valley and Benambra, which would normally be considered safe with double-digit margins, One Nation is expecting to perform well later this month.

In Murray Plains, where the Nationals enjoyed a 23.4 per cent margin in 2022, the retirement of the party’s state leader Peter Walsh means it too is no longer considered safe.

Ghazarian says these seats will be a “test bed” of how well One Nation can perform in Victorian politics.

“These are the electorates … that are going to be critical to shaping what the next Victorian government is going to look like and who it’s going to be made up of,” he says.

“If [the party] makes inroads here, then it can potentially build a foothold and consolidate in future elections. [But] if it can’t dislodge the Nationals at this election, then it’s going to be very difficult, you would think, in other parts of the state.”

In Shepparton, change is not impossible. In 2014, independent Suzanna Sheed was elected, breaking a 47-year-long streak for the Nationals in the area. Sheed retained the seat in 2018, but the Nats reclaimed its lost territory in 2022.

At the federal election in May 2025, voters in Farrer awarded Ley a 16.4 per cent margin. Her closest competition was independent Michelle Milthorpe, who collected 29 per cent after preferences. The One Nation candidate at the time, Emma Hicks, clocked just 6.6 per cent of votes.

But just a year later, Farley romped to victory, with One Nation recording a 32 per cent swing, and securing 39.5 per cent of the primary vote.

Former Nationals state director Matthew Harris says that while Farrer and Shepparton share some key similarities, the May byelection was effectively an “election with no consequences”.

“There wasn’t an opportunity to change the government or change the direction of the state,” Harris says. “People could vote for One Nation to make a point, to show they were frustrated.”

Ghazarian agrees, saying byelections tend to be dominated by hyper local issues.

“It could be the result was a signal from voters in Farrer to the federal government rather than having any state implications,” he says.

However, One Nation is arguably in the best position it has ever been in before a state election.

“It has sustained its primary vote of around 20 per cent since the start of the year,” Ghazarian says. “It is seeking to tap into the resentment voters may have towards the major parties. It’s telling voters if they are elected, they will do things differently. That could potentially be very powerful.”

Greater Shepparton, the council area spanning a collection of about 50 towns, generates $4.8 billion gross domestic product annually and accounts for 25 per cent of Victoria’s total agricultural production.

As well as horticulture, the region is home to a significant manufacturing and dairy industries too. These goods, many of which are perishable, are exported on massive trucks that rely on an extensive road network throughout the electorate.

Infrastructure, including a second Goulburn River crossing and broader road network resilience package, is a major talking point among local candidates.

Harris – who is now chief executive of Barton Deakin government consultancy – says people in regional Victoria “have been [saying] for a long time that the current Labor government is focused on Melbourne”.

The Suburban Rail Loop is expected to cost at least $30 billion, while “people are struggling for basic services and for potholes to be fixed” in the regions, he says.

In Shepparton, the Nationals are hoping the appeal and proven experience of mayor Shane Sali will be enough to stave off One Nation’s politically untested candidate, Phillip Bryant, poses.

“When it comes down to it, Shane Sali is a well known, incredibly popular mayor and local,” Harris says.

“The One Nation candidate is relatively unknown. And people are going to choose someone who is going to fight for them as part of the government.”

Resolve Strategic founder and pollster Jim Reed says when combined, the factors at play in Shepparton make it a seat to watch as the election nears.

“Much of the attention is on the raft of Melbourne seats that might change this election, but there are a number of seats in the regions that could tip the balance,” Reed says.

“Locals have shown a propensity to swing behind independents in the past, which is a sign they value a local voice outside the major parties,” Reed says. “That’s one of the appeals of One Nation, so it will be on their radar.”

According to polling from Resolve Political Monitor and published by The Age, One Nation has recorded a primary vote of more than 20 per cent consistently since April.