Baylor and Oklahoma State both secured bowl eligibility, while Arizona State and UCF got one win closer to getting into bowl games during Week 10, leading to some shakeups in bowl projections.
However, the biggest difference between this week and last week is how BYU is viewed in the playoff projections released by ESPN, CBS Sports and USA TODAY Sports. Before their loss to Utah, they were still a unanimous playoff contender. Now, views are split on whether the once-undefeated Cougars will make it into the playoffs.Â
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Meanwhile, the Utes are considered the second-best team in college football, with both ESPN analysts predicting they will make the National Championship game against Georgia. USA TODAY Sports has them making it to the semifinals, also facing the Bulldogs.
Here are their updated bowl projections. Among the Big 12 teams, Colorado, TCU, Iowa State and Kansas remain the only teams no outlet projects to make a bowl game. Â
Nov 7, 2026; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Colorado Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders warms up with players players before the game against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images
USA TODAY Sports projection: No projection
CBS Sports projection: No projection
Bonagura projection: No projection
Schlabach projection: No projection
With only three wins and three more games left, Colorado needs to win out to make a bowl game. They face Houston this Friday, followed by Cincinnati and UCF, both of which have five wins. ESPN analytics only gives the Buffaloes a 17% chance of defeating the Cougars, who have defeated every non-ranked Big 12 team they have faced this season. It is no surprise Colorado is not projected to make a bowl game. At this point, it would be more surprising if they did make it into a bowl game.
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Nov 7, 2026; Lubbock, Texas, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Thomas Castellanos (4) passes against the West Virginia Mountaineers in the first half at Galaxy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images
USA TODAY Sports projection: Alamo Bowl vs. Oregon
CBS Sports projection: Alamo Bowl vs. USC
Bonagura projection: No. 11 seed in the CFP vs. UCLA
Schlabach projection: No. 11 seed in the CFP vs. Miami
There seems to be consensus that the Big 12 will have at least one at-large team make the playoffs, but whether it will be Texas Tech or BYU remains the biggest question. With a 5-1 conference record and an 8-1 overall record, the Red Raiders are in the driver’s seat to play in the final Big 12 Championship game against Utah. Assuming they win out, how they play in that game could be the difference in making the playoffs or playing in the Alamo Bowl. Texas Tech has played in the Alamo Bowl three times, winning just once in 2010.
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UCF Knights
Nov 7, 2026; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; UCF Knights kicker Will Stone (15) celebrates with punter Mason Denaburg (97) after kicking the game winning extra point against the Kansas Jayhawks at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images
USA TODAY Sports projection: First Responder Bowl vs. Tulsa
CBS Sports projection: Independence Bowl vs. Washington
Bonagura projection: Liberty Bowl vs. South Carolina
Schlabach projection: No projection
After a miraculous touchdown on the last play of the game against Kansas, the Knights are now one win away from becoming bowl-eligible. Their final three games are against Arizona State, Iowa State and Colorado. Odds are they will win one of these games. Seeing UCF’s offense against South Carolina’s defense would be a very interesting matchup. Tulsa would also be an interesting matchup. They defeated Oklahoma State in the season opener and put up just 60 points against Tulane.
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Oct 30, 2026; Orlando, Florida, USA; Baylor Bears tight end Matthew Klopfenstein (85) scores during the second half against the Central Florida Knights at Acrisure Bounce House. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images
USA TODAY Sports projection: Cactus Bowl vs. Penn State
CBS Sports projection: Liberty Bowl vs. Auburn
Bonagura projection: Texas Bowl vs. Missouri
Schlabach projection: Texas Bowl vs. Oklahoma
After their 42-31 win against Iowa State, the Baylor Bears are officially bowl-eligible after just missing out on a bowl game last season. A matchup in the Cactus Bowl or Texas Bowl would be interesting. But personally, I think it would be fun to see Baylor get revenge against Auburn for their Week 1 loss by about an inch.
Nov 7, 2026; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils wide receiver Reed Harris (3) makes a touchdown catch against Colorado Buffaloes defensive back Jason Stokes Jr. (13) during the first half at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images
USA TODAY Sports projection: Poinsettia Bowl vs. Oregon State
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CBS Sports projection: Poinsettia Bowl vs. Fresno State
Bonagura projection: Poinsettia Bowl vs. Fresno State
Schlabach projection: Poinsettia Bowl vs. San Diego State
With their 20-10 win over Colorado, the Sun Devils are one win away from going to a bowl game for the third year in a row. It will not be easy with their remaining schedule, which includes games against UCF, Oklahoma State, and Arizona. According to ESPN analytics, their greatest chance of winning is against UCF, with a 32.4 percent chance of victory. If they do win another game, the Poinsettia Bowl seems like the most likely outcome.
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Nov 7, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars defensive back Jordan Allen (6) reacts after a hit on Cincinnati Bearcats wide receiver Jv Gibson (not pictured) resulting in an ejection for targeting during the fourth quarter at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
USA TODAY Sports projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. Louisville
CBS Sports projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. SMU
Bonagura projection: Alamo Bowl vs. Oregon
Schlabach projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. SMU
With two conference losses, Houston will not be making it to the Big 12 Championship game unless Texas Tech loses another game. Since that was the most likely path to the playoffs, the Cougars will be in one of college football’s top non-playoff bowl games. I always love the Pop-Tarts Bowl, and seeing Houston play Louisville or SMU would be entertaining.Â
BYU Cougars
Nov 7, 2026; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Brigham Young Cougars wide receiver Jojo Phillips (13) reacts during the second quarter against the Utah Utes at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images
USA TODAY Sports projection: Alamo Bowl vs. Oregon
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CBS Sports projection: No. 11 seed in the CFP vs. Alabama
Bonagura projection: No. 10 seed in the CFP vs. Notre Dame
Schlabach projection: Alamo Bowl vs. Oregon
Like Texas Tech, BYU has two options at this point: the Alamo Bowl or the playoffs. They have lost two of their last three games since taking down Notre Dame in a controversial game. Getting a chance to defeat the Irish fair and square in the playoffs would be highly entertaining. If I were a Cougars fan, I would not want to see them go against Alabama, especially since this game would be in Tuscaloosa. Getting a chance to play in the Alamo Bowl would be a nice consolation if they do not make the playoffs as an at-large team.
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Kansas State Wildcats
Nov 7, 2026; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Kansas State Wildcats quarterback Dillon Duff (10) passes the ball during the fourth quarter against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-Imagn Images
USA TODAY Sports projection: Independence Bowl vs. Liberty
CBS Sports projection: No projection
Bonagura projection: No projection
Schlabach projection: No projection
USA TODAY Sports is the only outlet still hoping Kansas State can manage two more wins and become bowl-eligible. However, with their current quarterback situation, it seems highly unlikely they will make it into a bowl game. If they cannot manage to win two of their final three games, which are against TCU, Arizona and Iowa State, it will be the first time since 2020 they are not eligible for a bowl game.
Utah Utes
Nov 7, 2026; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Utah Utes wide receiver Braden Pegan (7) reacts with wide receiver Creed Whittemore (2) after scoring a touchdown during the first quarter against the Brigham Young Cougars at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images
USA TODAY Sports projection: No. 2 seed in the CFP vs. Indiana (Cotton Bowl)
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CBS Sports projection: No. 2 seed in the CFP (Rose Bowl)
Bonagura projection: No. 2 seed in the CFP vs. Notre Dame
Schlabach projection: No. 2 seed in the CFP vs. Tennessee
Undefeated Utah is clearly the favorite in the Big 12. They are the unanimous No. 2 seed in the playoffs. While CBS Sports does not list whether they project Utah to win or lose, every other outlet has the Utes advancing to the next round of the playoffs. USA TODAY Sports has them losing to Alabama in the semifinals. However, ESPN has a little more confidence in Utah, with both analysts projecting they will face Georgia in the National Championship.
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Arizona Wildcats
Oct 24, 2026; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats linebacker Dash Fifita (0) celebrates during the third quarter against the Iowa State Cyclones at Casino Del Sol Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images
USA TODAY Sports projection: Las Vegas Bowl vs. Florida
CBS Sports projection: Las Vegas Bowl vs. South Carolina
Bonagura projection: Sun Bowl vs. Virginia Tech
Schlabach projection: Las Vegas Bowl vs. Missouri
At 7-2, Arizona has already clinched a bowl game. At this point, they are simply looking to boost their resume with a win against Utah, since they would still need Texas Tech to lose to get into the Big 12 Championship and potentially make the playoffs. The Las Vegas Bowl appears to be the consensus. The Wildcats have played in that bowl game only once, beating BYU in 2008.
Cincinnati Bearcats
Nov 7, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats tight end Gavin Grover (87) celebrates with wide receiver Larenzo Fenner (2) after scoring a touchdown during the third quarter against the Houston Cougars at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
USA TODAY Sports projection: Armed Forces Bowl vs. Texas-San Antonio
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CBS Sports projection: Cactus Bowl vs. Michigan
Bonagura projection: Cactus Bowl vs. Michigan
Schlabach projection: Independence Bowl vs. Oregon State
With one more win, Cincinnati will be bowl-eligible. In all likelihood, that will happen in their next two games against Iowa State and Colorado, since they play BYU in the regular-season finale. They have never played in the Armed Forces Bowl, Cactus Bowl or the Independence Bowl. They also played Michigan only once and lost, and they have not faced Oregon State since 2009. The Bearcats have also never faced Texas San Antonio. So, any of these matchups would be historic.
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West Virginia Mountaineers
Nov 7, 2026; Lubbock, Texas, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders defensive safety Brenden Jordan (7) attempts to tackle West Virginia Mountaineers running back Cam Cook (4) in the first half at Galaxy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images
USA TODAY Sports projection: Liberty Bowl vs. Missouri
CBS Sports projection: Armed Forces Bowl vs. Army
Bonagura projection: Independence Bowl vs. Washington
Schlabach projection: Armed Forces Bowl vs. Nebraska
At 5-4, West Virginia is another Big 12 team that needs one more win to become bowl-eligible. They face Kansas on Saturday and have a 53.8 percent chance of winning. Of these teams, Missouri allows the most rushing yards per game, so it would be interesting to see how they would perform against the Mountaineers’ run game, which averages the sixth-most rushing yards of any team in the FBS.
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Nov 7, 2026; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys wide receivers Miles Coleman (1) and Justin Bowick (0) celebrate a touchdown during the second quarter against the Kansas State Wildcats at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-Imagn Images
USA TODAY Sports projection: Texas Bowl vs. Auburn
CBS Sports projection: Texas Bowl vs. Missouri
Bonagura projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. Wake Forest
Schlabach projection: Liberty Bowl vs. Auburn
For the first time since 2023, Oklahoma State is going to a bowl game, making Eric Morris the first head coach for the Cowboys to lead them to a bowl game in his first season since Pat Jones in 1984. None of these teams have amazing pass defenses, so it should be entertaining to see how many touchdowns Drew Mestemaker throws if he plays in the bowl game.
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This article originally appeared on Buffaloes Wire: Big 12 football bowl projections, CFP picture after Week 10 results
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: Sports.yahoo.com
