The Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections are due in three-to-four months but the major players in the state’s political arena are facing powerful internal strife that have the power to down their prospects in the largest Indian state. The chances of victory appear to depend on the ability of the formations to set their respective houses in order, in time.
The ruling BJP is holding a two-day brainstorming session from Monday to assess its strengths and weaknesses ahead of the crucial elections with the participation of all its senior leaders. Union home minister and master strategist Amit Shah will play a crucial role in devising the schemes for the party as he knows the terrain as the back of his palm; he has been visiting the state on a regular basis in the last few months to see that the party won a hattrick term in the state which sends 80 members to the Lok Sabha and 31 to the Rajya Sabha. The party has made early moves to ensure that the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) is on board unlike in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections which saw the lack of synergy delivering a disastrous result. The RSS has moved in early on this time to ensure that the allegations of massive theft in the Ram temple did not blunt the BJP’s chances in the polls. The Sangh Parivar organisations are in total sync when it comes to booth level coordination and in micro-managing poll preparations.
A curious and potentially dangerous element the BJP faces in the state is the lethargy of the grassroots workers. Its central leadership is in receipt of the complaints that the party cadres have become inactive; they are ‘sitting at home’, refusing to share the enthusiasm of the leadership. Allegations of the loyal party workers being sidelined for new-comers, the government’s over-dependence on the bureaucracy and petty differences at local levels have drained the cadre of their energy which must be at its peak ahead of the elections. If the results of the elections to the legislative council — the BJP won six of the 11 seats while the SP bagged five — are any indication, then the BJP will have to do its homework properly if it is to repeat its performances in 2017 and 2022.
The Samajwadi Party which leads the INDIA bloc in the state has many an element to look forward to, including the sense of anti-incumbency, the alleged scam around the Ram temple and the disillusionment in the BJP rank and file. The results of the election to the legislative council have come as a shot in the arm for the party which still has a solid vote base on which it can weave a success story. However, the Congress, the minor ally of the party in the state, is in no mood to concede the space the SP ought to have: it has been consistently making a demand that it must get 180-200 of the total 403 seats to contest. That its vote share in the state hit a double digit several elections ago has not deterred the Congress from making unrealistic claims when the alliance has a chance this time around. The Opposition bloc will also have to contend with the mega-plans of the AIMIM to contest the elections, which could, in all likelihood, cut into its vote share. Its chances depend on how the SP manages its unrealistic ally, the Congress, and how it can lessen the impact of the vote-cutter AIMIM in alliance with Chandrashekhar Azad’s Aazad Samaj Party.
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