Bihar Assembly Polls 2025: With the stage set and nominations now closed, Bihar’s political battleground is set for a fiercely contested assembly election to be held in November. The focus has shifted from alliances to voter mobilisation, and amid the familiar caste calculations, one group stands out as the potential kingmaker — the Scheduled Caste (SC) electorate.
Often overshadowed in public debate, the SC community’s electoral significance has grown considerably. Comprising nearly one-fifth of Bihar’s population, their consolidated vote could prove decisive in determining which alliance secures a mandate to govern the state.
Scheduled Castes: A Growing Political Force
The latest 2023 caste census reveals that SC voters now constitute nearly 20% of Bihar’s population, a significant increase from the 16% recorded in 2011. This translates into around five to six million voters whose political importance has long been underestimated.
Dominated by three key communities — the Ravidas and Paswans, each about 5%, and the Musahars at 3%, these groups make up almost two-thirds of Bihar’s SC population, making their collective vote critical across many constituencies.
Beyond Reserved Seats: Real Power Of SC Voters
Bihar reserves 38 assembly seats for SC candidates. Historically, the NDA dominated these, winning 37 of 38 in 2010. But by 2020, this advantage had shrunk to 21-17. Notably, in 2015, when JD(U) allied with the Mahagathbandhan, the alliance swept 29 reserved seats.
Yet, the influence of SC voters extends far beyond these reserved constituencies. Because multiple parties contest reserved seats with SC candidates, the SC vote often fragments, with outcomes influenced by other caste groups. In contrast, in non-reserved constituencies, where SC voters frequently constitute 20% or more, their unified vote can be decisive.
Electoral Trends In SC-Dominated Areas
In constituencies where Paswans make up over 10% of voters (27 seats), the Mahagathbandhan won 14 seats in 2020, narrowly edging the NDA’s 13. Among Ravidas-dominated areas (29 seats with more than 10% population), the Mahagathbandhan led decisively with 22 wins to the NDA’s 6. Across 82 seats where SCs exceeded 20%, the Mahagathbandhan led in 52 constituencies, while the NDA led in 29.
Voting Patterns And Political Alignments
The 2020 post-poll analysis showed that around 40% of SC voters supported the NDA, 25% voted for the Mahagathbandhan, and a sizeable 35% chose other parties, mainly the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), which split the traditional NDA vote, capturing 32% of the Paswan community’s support.
Political loyalties within SC sub-groups vary — the Ravidas community tends to support parties like the Bahujan Samaj Party and Congress, bolstered recently by Congress appointing Rajesh Ram as its state president. The Paswans and Musahars largely align with the NDA, influenced by leaders such as Chirag Paswan and Jitan Ram Manjhi.
The 2024 Shift: Growing Momentum For Mahagathbandhan
The 2024 general elections signalled a notable change, with the Mahagathbandhan boosting its SC vote share by 18-20 percentage points. Concerns around constitutional safeguards and reservations played a major role, with approximately 60% of SC voters backing the NDA and 40% supporting the opposition bloc.
The Mahagathbandhan is consolidating this gain through campaigns like the “Voter Adhikar Yatra” and highlighting alleged voter suppression of marginalised groups during the electoral roll revision, aiming to deepen its appeal.
Welfare As Key To Winning SC Support
Bihar’s SC community faces significant socio-economic challenges — 43% of SC households earn under Rs 6,000 per month, and 72% earn less than Rs 10,000, far below the state average. Educational attainment is low, with only 3.14% graduating, compared to 6.47% statewide, and employment in government and private sectors remains minimal despite reservations.
This economic vulnerability makes direct welfare schemes, subsidies, and cash transfers especially effective in securing SC votes. The NDA has focused on rolling out schemes targeting youth, farmers, seniors, and labourers in a bid to capitalise on this dynamic.
The True Kingmakers Of Bihar’s Political Future
Despite political reservations, SC communities remain underrepresented in key government roles and policy-making positions. Internal divisions between groups, such as the Ravidas and Paswan, further fragment their influence, often exploited by parties offering symbolic representation without substantive power.
As Bihar approaches its critical electoral test, the SC vote’s decisive role is undeniable. Comprising one-fifth of the population and concentrated in over 80 constituencies, the community holds the key to power. Whichever alliance can convincingly address their aspirations, beyond mere symbolism to genuine representation and economic empowerment, will likely form the next government in Patna. The question is no longer whether the SC vote matters, but which political force will earn their trust and govern Bihar.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: ZEE News
