Exit polls in the past have tried to predict accurate results, however, most of them have always predicted a lot different from the actual results. In Bihar election 2025, Nitish Kumar is fighting for another term, Mahagathbandhan to resume power and many new parties to taste win for first time.
Past Result vs Exit Poll prediction: Were exit polls in past elections accurate?
The second and final phase of the Bihar election is over, and the exit polls today will try to reveal the actual picture of the election results. Like its first phase of polls, the second phase of polling also witnessed a record voter turnout of 67.14% till 5 pm. This election is highly crucial for both the ruling NDA and the opposition Mahagathbandhan.
The key candidates in the first phase of voting in Bihar, which was held on November 6, included Lalu Yadav’s sons Tejashwi and Tej Pratap, folk singer Maithili Thakur (Alinagar), JD(U)’s Anant Kumar Singh (Mokama).
The results of the two-phase election will be announced on November 14. Out of 243 Assembly seats, a party or alliance has to win a minimum of 122 seats to form a government.
Past result vs Exit Poll prediction
Exit polls have not always been very accurate in the past elections. The actual results will be revealed only after the vote counting is done on 14 November.
The Bihar election 2025 is a major battle between the two big alliances-BJP led NDA and Congress led Mahagathbandhan. However, this election is a big test for current Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his party as BJP is heavily banking on him to be their next CM, in case the NDA wins. Another crucial question is, will Bihar election 2025 will change the fate of the state and see Mahagathbandhan resuming power and ending Kumar’s 20-years-long tenure.
How was Bihar Exit Poll 2020?
In 2020, around 11 exit polls predicted a win from a small margin for the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan predicting a win by 125 seats, three seats more than the majority mark in the 243-seat Assembly and predicted 108 seats for the JD(U)-led NDA. However, on the day of the results, the NDA won the close contest election winning 125 seats compared to the Mahagathbandhan’s 110 seats.
According to the C-Voter exit polls, there was supposed to be a hung house in the 2020 Assembly Elections. The pollster predicted NDA’s victory with 116 seats, while giving 120 seats for the Mahagathbandha. The prediction for LJP was only winning one seat.
Most of the exit polls predicted the Tejashwi Yadav-led Mahagathbandhan to defeat the ruling Nitish Kumar-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
How was Bihar Exit Poll 2015?
In 2015, Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) contested the assembly elections along with Lalu Prasad’s RJD as part of the Grand Alliance. The NDA had undivided LJP, the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (now the Rashtriya Lok Morcha, led by Upendra Kushwaha), and Jitan Ram Manji’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular).
According to the exit poll predictions, an average of six surveys predicted a win by a short margin for the Mahagathbandhan, predicting a majority mark of 122 by 1 seat. The poll of polls gave the BJP-led NDA 114 seats.
But it turned out that the Mahagathbandhan won with a comfortable majority of 178 seats. The NDA closed with just 58 seats, proving the exit polls wrong once more.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: dnaindia.com
