The deployment of substantial US military forces to the Persian Gulf has once again revived speculation about the possibility of American military action against Iran. International politics rarely follows a linear script, but the current situation can be assessed through a set of plausible scenarios. One of them, and not the least serious, is the use of force.
There are arguments that support the military option. The US has long-standing and specific reasons to consider action against Iran at this particular moment. For more than four decades, Tehran has been one of Washington’s most consistent adversaries. Its hostility toward Israel, a key US ally in the region, is even more irreconcilable. Western governments believe Iran has for years pursued the development of nuclear weapons, and North Korea’s successful emergence as a de facto nuclear power serves as an obvious precedent.
By contrast, recent history offers many examples of states that lacked nuclear weapons and were attacked or dismantled by force: Iraq, Libya, Syria, Venezuela. Iran itself was subjected to military strikes in 2025. Meanwhile, Tehran has achieved notable progress in its missile program, which US officials openly describe as a direct threat. Iranian counterstrikes against Israel during last year’s conflict underscored that capability.
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