Snakes and Ladders: The verdict on which teams will rise and fall in 2026

There’s an argument to put Fremantle in the contention bracket – they don’t lack for much – but there’s been an argument that they’d contend for the past three years, and they are yet to live up to their promise. Their loss to the Suns in an elimination final at home was another opportunity lost. History says be wary of them.

Hawthorn could and should be maturing to strike for another flag, but their own moves in the off-season are oddly the reason for doubt. The self-awareness that they needed to burnish their midfield is the strong pointer to why to doubt them taking a step now. They thought they would get Will Day back and blend him with Zach Merrett. Now they have no Merrett, Day out for months and James Worpel playing for Geelong.

Still, the Hawks don’t lack for much, will get Day in the back half, James Sicily is fit after being injured all last year, and Josh Weddle, who will sign a new contract before the season starts (probably this week), is on the cusp of becoming one of the competition’s elite players.

It’s usually at this time of year that the idea “the Western Bulldogs can win it” gains momentum. But history says to be wary. The Dogs have the lot: good forwards, a midfield that unearthed Ed Richards as an A-grade onballer and Joel Freijah as a bullocking talent. Then there’s the Bont and Libba. Sam Darcy could be the best player in the comp by year’s end, and Jordan Croft in his two games last year showed there’s a lot to be excited about. They lost Ugle-Hagan, but based on last year’s output, you can’t lose what you never had. And Cody Weightman is taking longer than Godot to return.

So how does the top eight change?

Firstly, it changes by becoming a top 10 due to the AFL’s desperation to reward mediocrity with a wildcard finals round.

Like the ladder overall, the finalists change year-on-year. So who will go out?

Logically, Collingwood are shakiest. Their age profile is one thing, the fact they have not added to their list in the summer is another. The continued absence of Bobby Hill is a big blow, as is the reliance on, and thus their vulnerability, if either of the Darcys – Moore or Cameron – miss for a period. An injury-interrupted start to the year for those two is not a good sign.

Doing almost nothing in the trade period was absolutely the right thing to do for the bigger picture – they will have to bring youth in at some point, even if they were a year late in going to the draft – but it does mean there is no off-season inclusion to indicate the Magpies will improve when all demographics say they should fade. Any team with the Daicos boys in it, and Jamie Elliott for that matter, will still be competitive. The expanded finals to a top 10 means they could still play in September, but it would be surprising if they matched last year’s 16 wins and top-four finish.

How do you measure Adelaide? The side that finished top of the ladder after the home and away season or the one that went out of the finals straight sets? Did they finish high because of the fixture and get found out in finals? Or was Izak Rankine’s absence in the finals a bigger factor?

The Crows should still make top four with what is still not as strong a midfield as other power sides. That’s the query on them.

GWS are hard to read, and it would not surprise if they fell backwards. Yes, Clayton Oliver should be good for them, but which version of Oliver they get is the unknown. They are expected to miss Josh Kelly for much of the season due to hip issues.

Who’s going to jump?

Sydney. If you could buy stocks in clubs, the Swans would be a good buy. They finished 10th, so just repeating that would see them play finals this time around. They got to 10th with Errol Gulden playing just 10 games. Gulden comes back, and now he and Isaac Heeney have Charlie Curnow to kick to.

Yes, they lose Will Hayward and Ollie Florent (who had become fringe players), as well as the more ephemeral impact of losing Tom Harley as CEO to AFL headquarters. But the “ins” of Gulden and Curnow should make the Swans a top four chance.

St Kilda attracted as many summer headlines as CoolCabanas. They brought in Tom De Koning and Jack Silvagni, traded out their captain, and paid a fortune to keep their best player, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera. The hype needs to be matched by performance. This was a team – the only team – that lost to West Coast last year so, a) that is one win they should pick up this season, but also, b) they have a lot of improvement to make.

Who looks shaky?

Melbourne made the most seismic changes of any club in October, finally biting the bullet on Oliver and Petracca while Steven May was shopped about. These were plainly bigger picture decisions.

So they have lost Oliver and Petracca, as well as Jack Bowey has a long-term injury. Who knows how long May will be away from the club after missing training following a police visit to his home the previous week.

Last year Petracca was second, Bowey fourth and Oliver seventh in the Demons’ best and fairest award. Even accepting the promise that youngsters Harvey Langford, Xavier Lindsay and Caleb Windsor will get better, it’s difficult to make a case that they will improve after losing that quality from their list. A Max Gawn injury would leave them terribly exposed.

Carlton, obviously. Charlie Curnow is the big loss. Forget TDK, who is a good player but was not that good last year, and the size of the offer he got from St Kilda was ludicrous. Carlton couldn’t even attempt to go near it and were right to wave bye bye to him. Jack Silvagni played a handful of good games in defence, but he too seldom gets on the park for his departure to be considered a loss. Curnow, though, hurts. He’s a proven goalkicker and he’s box office. Ben Ainsworth, Will Hayward and Ollie Florent are smart additions for depth without any having Curnow-type impact. The Blues clearly know Harry Dean, Jagga Smith and, next year, Cody Walker are the future. That makes this year look like almost a tread-water year.

The addition of only fringe players from other clubs and not one player from the national draft after losing the mature talent of Travis Boak, Ryan Burton and Willie Rioli makes it hard to mount a case that Port Adelaide will be better. Getting the untapped talent of Jack Lukosius back from long-term injury should help, and the change of coach could invigorate others, but its doubtful Port will rise far.

It’s challenging to identify where Essendon will get significantly better this year. The fact their now-former captain wanted out creates a new tension for them to manage. They are painstakingly turning their list over and dong it in the right way, but it’s a slow build. The natural improvement they get from their young players needs to outpace the improvement at the clubs around them for a jump to occur.

No one expects the number of days since Essendon won a final to be shorter than it is now by the time New Year’s Eve rolls around.

Bottom-six bolter?

There will be a time, some day in the foggy mists, when North Melbourne will find, as St Kilda did at the end of last century, that they have been bad for so long and stockpiled so many good draft picks that they simply have to stop being terrible.

Is that time now? Probably not. They could have been ready to go if among that welter of top draft picks they had collected a key defender or two, but alas they have not. Griffin Logue needs to do more.

Richmond have taken the pain, amassed the draft picks and are building. Unlike North, their recent history provides confidence they will actually get it right.

The Tigers will be better, but this is unlikely to mean they jump this year. Their quality kids are probably still too raw and a year or two away. But they will jump Hawthorn-style soon.

Last year they won five games, which was a good result even if their percentage of 66 also reflected the fact there were big losses thrown in with those wins. Last season their No.1 pick Sam Lalor only played 11 games, while Josh Smillie, the 195cm top-10 midfielder didn’t play at all. Josh Gibcus missed yet another season but is finally ready to return. New arrival Sam Grlj has impressed, too.

The quirks

Fremantle won 16 games last year and only finished sixth. That many wins would ordinarily earn a team a top-four spot. West Coast, meanwhile, managed just the one win and finished bottom.

This is not said as a launchpad to the state of WA football, but to note that a team such as the Eagles could win three or four games in 2026 but still finish bottom. Others could win more games than last year but not progress far up the ladder. Conversely, it’s possible a team/s could finish in the top four with fewer than 16 games.

The biggest quirk that affects team’s prospects – the one that will require a column all of its own to dissect – is the maddening absurdity of the fixture. But that’s a discussion for another time …

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