The best players on the best team are the favorites to score the most goals during the Men’s Hockey Tournament at the Winter Olympics. That sounds logical at first glance. Dig a little deeper, though, and the case starts to fall apart.
Canada has the two betting favorites in Nathan MacKinnon (+800) and Connor McDavid (10/1). But when those two are on the same roster, the path to leading the tournament in scoring is anything but clear. They’re not just competing with the field; they’re competing with each other.
And that’s before factoring in the rest of Canada’s offensive depth, from Sam Reinhart and Sidney Crosby to Macklin Celebrini and Cale Makar.
With that much firepower, the Canadians are likely to spread the wealth, which should open this market up considerably.
And don’t forget it was Austria’s Michael Grabner and Team USA’s Phil Kessel, not Sidney Crosby or Patrick Kane, who led the tournament in scoring the last time NHLers made the trip.
Below are my favorite value plays to lead the tournament in goals:
Men’s Olympic Hockey: Best bets to score the most goals
Tage Thompson, Team USA (75/1, FanDuel)
The Americans could run into the same “good problem to have” as Canada in terms of scoring depth. Auston Matthews, the Tkachuk brothers, Jack Eichel, and Jake Guentzel are all threats to pace the field in scoring, but they’re all much shorter prices than Tage Thompson, who has arguably been the best American in the NHL during the pre-Olympic push.
Thompson has racked up 17 goals since Dec. 1 and is eighth in the NHL in shots on goal during that span.
This isn’t just betting on some hot streak, either. Thompson has long established himself as one of the most dangerous goal-scorers in the world, ranking ninth in the NHL with 149 goals since 2022-23.
Betting on the NHL?
The reason that Thompson is so far down the list is that he wasn’t selected for last year’s 4 Nations Face-Off, which has led to questions about how much opportunity he will get compared to some of the bigger names on this squad. It’s worth keeping an eye on, but it’s hard to imagine that Thompson won’t play a crucial role for the Americans in Italy, given his current form.
Thompson, like the rest of his fellow Americans, will have a great chance to get off the blocks hot with Latvia on the schedule for Game 1.
This is my favorite pre-Olympic bet across any market.
Elias Pettersson, Sweden (175/1, FanDuel)
It’s been ugly for Elias Pettersson over the past couple of seasons in Vancouver, but the situation out there has been so toxic that a change of scenery – and some meaningful games – could be just what the former Calder Trophy winner needs.
Pettersson is just a few years removed from a 39-goal, 102-point season, so we know he’s got elite scoring chops, and he should have every opportunity to show them off in this setup.
Leo Carlsson is out of the tournament with an injury, which makes EP40 a likely candidate to center the first line and play as a trigger-man on the top power-play unit.
It also won’t hurt that Pettersson will have a great chance to pad his numbers against Italy in the group stage.
Brandon Hagel, Team Canada (300/1, FanDuel)
Instead of paying up for one of the big guns on Team Canada, I’ll bite at a massive price on Brandon Hagel.
Perhaps the most underrated player in the NHL, Hagel has scored 61 goals since the beginning of last season (17th-most in the league), and is a perfect fit to be the third wheel on one of Canada’s top two lines, which will likely feature some combination of MacKinnon, McDavid, Crosby, and Celebrini.
Hagel’s game is built on tenacity and being around the front of the net, something that should translate to ample scoring opportunities, given the talented playmakers he’ll be complementing.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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