Cognizant Classic betting guide: 6 picks our expert loves this week

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a host and regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the 2026 Cognizant Classic, which gets underway Thursday in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla.

Say goodbye to the Pacific coastline, desert golf, and Poa Annua and hello to palm trees, water hazards, and Bermudagrass. Yes, the West Coast Swing has concluded and we are onto Florida. The 2026 PGA Tour season begins its Florida Swing at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida for the Cognizant Classic, the first of four consecutive stops in the Sunshine State.

Coming off two straight Signature Events and with another coming up next week at Bay Hill in Orlando, the Cognizant takes a hit as far as strength of field. Positioned on the schedule as a “tweener” makes for an unfortunate but obvious off week for the top players in the game.

Not only has this event changed in name (formerly known as the Honda Classic) but it has changed dramatically in terms of golf course difficulty. George and Tom Fazio designed PGA National back in the early 1980s. Jack Nicklaus was called upon to do a redesign in 1990 and has made three or four additional tweaks since then. For many years, we saw the champions barely reach double-digits under par. Chris Kirk won in a playoff four seasons ago at 14 under. Austin Eckroat won in 2024 at 17 under par and Joe Highsmith is your defending champion, closing at 19 under last year.

One of the more challenging par 4s on Tour, the 10th hole at PGA National, was lengthened by 20 yards two years ago and converted to a much more scorable par 5. The dormant Bermudagrass is now being overseeded with winter Ryegrass and this makes for a softer landing, more receptive fairways, and less penal rough. It is interesting but this has really changed things by seemingly half a dozen shots or more. Jack Knapp opened last year’s event by shooting a 59. The current iteration is a par 71 that stretches to a little better than 7,200 yards and is now considered solely a Nicklaus design.

Another element that is always a factor here in Palm Beach Gardens is the wind. With water coming into play on 15 of the 18 holes, a good breeze can make things quite dicey. Nicklaus’ stretch of closing holes, Nos. 15 – 17, is known as the “Bear Trap.” Two par 3s and a par 4, all with shots over water. The forecast is calling for winds in the neighborhood of 10-15 mph. That is significant — but if it kicks up any higher, we could see some carnage.

For me, the golf course demands accuracy, ball striking, and scrambling around the greens. I looked at Strokes Gained: Approach, Off the Tee, and Ball Striking. I looked at Good Drives Gained, Scrambling, and Hole Proximity from 125-200 yards. With water all over the place, 60 sand bunkers, and wind, hitting good approach shots from 150 yards or more – PGA National becomes one of the more challenging venues on Tour to do such things.

As for the correlated courses, I believe much of it has to do with how one plays in Florida. The conditions are similar at each venue on the swing, Bay Hill (Arnold Palmer Invitational), Innisbrook (Valspar), TPC Sawgrass (the Players), and PGA National. I feel we see some crossover success with Waialae in Honolulu and also with recent Canadian Open venues, Hamilton, St. George’s, and TPC Toronto. Finally, there is a lot of crossover success here at the Cognizant with that of the Open Championship. Former Open champions, Padraig Harrington and Marc Calcavecchia have each won this event twice. Ernie Els, Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott, Justin Leonard, Rickie Fowler, and Todd Hamilton have all won here in Florida and have either won or played especially well in the Open. Personally, I believe much of that comes down to ball-striking and an ability to play in the wind — both handy when it comes to an Open Championship or the Florida Swing.

Daniel Berger (40-1)

The Florida State Seminole really kicked off his career here at PGA National when he lost in a playoff as a Tour rookie in 2015. He’s twice finished fourth here since then in 2020 and in 2022. Berger has always been a good ball-striker, wind player, accurate driver, and Bermudagrass specialist. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks eighth in this field for Hole Proximity from 150-175 yards. He was sixth earlier this season in Hawaii at Waialae and eighth at the Open Championship at Royal St. George’s in 2021.

Aaron Rai (40-1)

Here is another very accurate, ball-striker type player that knows his way around windy conditions. Rai finished 14th at Hamilton at the Canadian Open in 2024 and 13th at St. George’s in 2022. He was 19th at Royal St. George’s in 2021 at the Open. In this field, Rai ranks 12th for SG: Approach, seventh in Bogey Avoidance, and is No. 1 for Good Drives Gained over the last 24 rounds.

Haotong Li (49-1)

We tried Li a few weeks ago in Phoenix and came up short but I am going to go back to him here given his recent form and his skill set. He’s finished eighth and 11th on Tour this season and top 10 twice on the DP World Tour to close out 2025. Li is currently eighth on Tour for SG: Tee to Green, 17th in Total Driving, and 19th for Scrambling. Li has twice finished top 4 at the Open Championship, including last summer at Royal Portrush.

Jordan Smith (60-1)

I’ve always felt Smith has a great deal of upside and I’m glad we are now getting to see him on a regular basis on the PGA Tour, where he currently ranks fifth in Total Driving, sixth in Greens in Regulation, and is No. 1 in Ball Striking. He finished 16th a few weeks ago in Phoenix and closed out 2025 on the DP World Tour with finishes of 15-20-and-21.

Mackenzie Hughes (62-1)

Enter the Canadian short game wizard who comes off two straight top-35 finishes at Phoenix and two weeks ago at Pebble Beach, where he ranked 17th in the field for Greens in Regulation. Over the last 24 rounds, Hughes ranks second in this field for Scrambling. At the Open Championship at Royal St. George’s in 2021, Hughes finished sixth. He was runner-up here at the Cognizant in 2020 and has finished seventh and 14th in the Canadian Open at Hamilton Golf & Country Club in 2024 and in 2019.

Emiliano Grillo (85-1)

It truly is a melting pot of selections this week, so why not an Argentinian? Seriously though, Grillo is a ball-striker who really seems to fit Florida golf. He was eighth here in Palm Beach Gardens in 2018, has been eighth and seventh at Bay Hill, and as high as 11th at The Players. He missed three cuts in five starts out west, so the move to the southeast may be a much-needed change. Over the last 24 rounds, Grillo ranks 14th in this field for Bogey Avoidance, 13th in Hole Proximity from 125-150 yards, and is seventh for Good Drives Gained. At the Open Championship, he has twice finished 12th and was sixth in 2023.