From regime change ambitions to oil markets and missile arsenals, the experts explain what lays in store for Washington and Tehran
As the United States and Israel launch a military operation against Iran on February 28, 2026, global attention turns to the Middle East, where the stakes could not be higher. Analysts and experts from Russia are weighing in, offering a wide range of perspectives on the strategic calculations, potential consequences, and risks of escalation. From regime change ambitions to Iran’s military capabilities, from oil markets to the broader geopolitical fallout, these voices provide a nuanced look at a rapidly unfolding crisis.
Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor-in-Chief of Russia in Global Affairs:
Trump has delivered a full-blown ultimatum to the Iranian leadership – in effect, a declaration of war until the objective is achieved, with maximalist aims that extend all the way to regime change. Apparently, he has concluded that the risks – including potential losses – are acceptable (something he had hesitated over before), and that success would yield decisive strategic gains: a final reshaping of the Middle East in the interests of Israel and the United States.
A military campaign of this scale, launched without the consent of Congress, runs counter to the US Constitution. In the case of Iraq, Congress granted authorization for the use of force in advance. Nothing of the sort has happened here. If it’s all in, then it’s all in – a bet on a swift and spectacular outcome.
But what if it isn’t?
Andrei Ilnitsky, military analyst and member of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy:
It is crucial to understand that the operation unfolding around Iran rests, from the outset, on a false strategic premise. Let us fix the baseline at the moment the United States entered the active phase of its campaign: Iran neither posed nor poses a direct military threat to the United States. The picture with Israel is more complicated, but as far as Washington is concerned, the threat emanating from Tehran is close to zero. That is not rhetoric; it is a sober assessment of the balance of capabilities and intentions.
Moreover, Iran has repeatedly signaled its willingness to engage in substantive negotiations, including on the nuclear issue – the most sensitive file of all for Tehran.
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