The Iran war is giving rise to a centuries-old economic theory—and laying waste to the WTO-based world order

March 5, 2026

Good morning. President Donald Trump’s pledge to offer insurance backstops and naval escorts for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz highlights the critical role it plays in global energy markets, while the continued elevation in oil prices suggests energy traders are worried that such moves may not reduce the risk of attack.

The reaction of global markets also underscores how the world of trade has fundamentally changed. Only 7% of U.S. crude imports travel through the Strait of Hormuz. Europe, which shifted its energy supply after Russia invaded Ukraine, gets a little less than 10% of its gas through the passage. Almost half of China’s imports come through there, which explains why Beijing is worried though unlikely to get involved.

Most leaders came of age in a world of globalization and free trade. What we’re witnessing now is the reemergence of a term I associate with 19th-century Britain: mercantilism, a state‑driven protectionist economic system built around maximizing exports, penalizing imports, and accumulating national wealth and power.

That’s the term used by Angeliki Frangou, a fourth-generation Greek shipowner and CEO of NYSE-listed Navios Maritime Partners. Having navigated through COVID shutdowns, tariff wars, actual wars, geopolitical tension, climate change, and piracy on the high seas, she sees how trade has shifted. (Nearly 90% of international trade in goods moves by boat.)

“Everything is about national security. It is about mercantilism. It is about friend‑shoring,” she says. “We went from just-in-time to just-in-case, getting resources from where we think is most secure. The efficiency of trade and globalization, low tariffs and efficiency, is not part of the equation.”

Those trends are not going away, regardless of the outcome in Iran. With a global fleet that includes 171 dry cargo and tanker vessels, Frangou sees the trends play out in real time. On average, she has about one ship pass through the Hormuz every day, noting that shipping rates for transporting crude from the region have risen 4X since last week, where alternate workarounds exist.

Her message to CEOs: “We are watching history in a lot of ways. The WTO (World Trade Organization) world we built our companies in basically doesn’t exist today. We are living in a different world.”

Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com

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