The pace of Iran’s retaliatory strikes against the US and Israel appears to be slowing 13 days into the war, with most attacks successfully intercepted by American-made air defense systems, statistics and experts say.
After launching nearly 100 separate attacks against the Jewish state on Feb. 28 and March 1, the Islamic Republic’s rate of fire has dropped to only a handful a day, according to the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS).
The Islamic Republic fired 44 projectiles toward Israel on the first day of the war and 55 on the second, according to INSS’s data.
As of Thursday evening, however, Iran had fired only five projectiles, one fewer than the amount launched from Hezbollah forces in Lebanon and a reduction of more than 95% from the first two days.
Similarly, the United Arab Emirates went from fending off more than 100 drone strikes a day early in the conflict to just 35 over March 9-10.
The UAE’s defense ministry has recorded no cruise missile launches from Iran toward its territory since March 1, along with just six to 12 ballistic missiles per day after 165 were launched during the first two days of the war — a decline of up to 96%.
A similar drop was seen in Bahrain, where the military reports approximately six missile attacks per day compared to 45 on the first day of the war — a drop of nearly 87%.
War Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed earlier this week the dip was evidence that the US strikes against Tehran’s missile and launcher manufacturing facilities were working.
“Our strikes mean we’ve made significant progress in reducing the number of missile and drone attacks out of Iran,” Hegseth touted Tuesday.
“Ballistic missile attacks continue to trend down 90% from where they’ve started,” he added. “And one-way attack drones have decreased 83% since the beginning of the operation, a testament to our air defenders and our air-defense systems.”
US-made THAAD batteries have intercepted the vast majority of the missiles fired at the UAE since the war began, putting the air defense system on par with Israel’s much-lauded Iron Dome interceptors, according to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War think tank.
“The UAE, which has received the most Iranian attacks since the war began, has intercepted 241 of 262 ballistic missiles as of March 10, which is an interception rate of 92[%],” the ISW wrote on X early Thursday.
“This interception rate is equivalent to the Israeli ballistic missile interception rates in April 2024, October 2024, June 2025, and during the current war.”
The ISW concluded that despite Tehran’s boasts of targeting American radars and depleting interceptor missile stockpiles in the Gulf, the attacks “have not achieved the regime’s objective of degrading air defenses enough to reliably penetrate them.”
Danny Citrinowicz, a senior fellow at the INSS, however, warned that Iran may be purposefully conserving its missiles for later use.
“They are prepared,” Citrinowicz told the New York Times, “and they are likely hunkering down for what could be a long war.”
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