TEHRAN- The Research Center of the Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture (ICCIMA) has published a report on the impact of the imposed war against Iran on global energy security.
The escalation of geopolitical tensions in the West Asia during the early months of 2026 once again revealed that, despite global efforts to transition to clean energy and a green economy, the lifeblood of global industry remains dependent on oil, gas, and petroleum products. Any disruption to the vital routes and chokepoints for oil transit – even in the short term – can directly affect global energy security.
Therefore, the ongoing conflict in the strategic West Asia region can be considered one of the most complex crises of the current century, the dimensions of which have impacted not only the region but the entire world.
In a report prepared on the impact of the war against Iran on global energy security, the Research Center of the Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture examined the position of the Strait of Hormuz in global energy security and wrote:
The Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf is the world’s second most strategic energy passageway after the Strait of Malacca, with approximately 20% of the global daily oil flow (equivalent to roughly 21 million barrels) passing through this route. However, the importance of this passageway is not limited to oil; nearly 20% of the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply also transited the Strait of Hormuz prior to the recent war. According to a report by S&P Global Energy, over 2 million barrels per day of Asia’s naphtha imports pass through this strait, making this route vital for the Asian petrochemical industry. About 90% of the oil and 86% of the LNG shipped through the Strait of Hormuz go to Asian markets. Countries like India and China depend on the route through this strait for approximately 45% and 30% of their LNG imports from Qatar, respectively. From an export perspective, all of Iran’s, Kuwait’s, and Qatar’s oil exports are shipped through Hormuz; Iraq ships about 97%, Saudi Arabia 89%, and the United Arab Emirates 66% of their total oil exports via this strait.
The report notes that major oil producers in the region – including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait – have reduced production or even temporarily shut down some key oil fields. It also mentions damage to oil facilities and fields in countries around the Persian Gulf. It states: This situation has caused an oil supply shock globally; the price of Brent crude has risen from around $70 at the end of Bahman 1404 (February 2025), just before the war began, to over $100, and based on some pessimistic scenarios, could reach $200 if the crisis continues.
The report adds: These developments are occurring against a backdrop where the oil market in 2025 faced a supply surplus and an approximate 18% decline in Brent crude prices by the end of that year. Since a supply surplus of 1.5 million barrels per day was expected before the conflict, it appears that the current oil price, even with the recent increase, is still lower than the level that would have been expected under normal market conditions without a supply surplus.
Of course, the effects of this crisis are not limited to the oil market. In the gas market, the announcement by QatarEnergy of a partial halt in LNG production caused gas prices in Europe to jump by about 40%, nearly doubling natural gas prices on the continent in just two days. Consequently, the disruption in gas supply has led to a shock in the global gas market (especially in Europe and Asia), the consequences of which will likely manifest as price volatility in the electricity markets of these regions.
Another factor leading to a reduction in effective supply is the increase in the “geopolitical risk premium.” Higher war insurance costs, reduced willingness of shipping companies to enter the region, difficulty accessing tanker fleets, and longer voyage times all limit effective supply and thereby undermine energy security on a global scale. Therefore, energy security is no longer just a matter of “production and supply,” but also relates to the “possibility of stable and predictable transit.” Bloomberg shipping data for the period from March 1st to 6th shows that the traffic of commercial vessels around the Strait of Hormuz has decreased by more than 85% compared to the same period last year; a decrease that disrupts not only the flow of energy but also the transportation of goods, placing additional pressure on global supply chains.
The report by the Iran Chamber of Commerce Research Center also emphasizes the impact of the war on the resilience of the global energy supply chain:
The current conflict in the West Asia demonstrated that energy security is not limited to a single country or region; rather, it is a global and intertwined concept, and disruption at a vital chokepoint can threaten the entire supply chain and the stability of the global economy. In fact, the Strait of Hormuz crisis is not limited to oil supply; it also affects the stability of commodity, industrial, and food markets.
For example, the reduction in sulfur production used in making sulfuric acid (needed for extracting copper and cobalt for electric vehicle batteries, power grids, transformers, and advanced electronic equipment), electricity shortages for Taiwan’s semiconductor industry (which depends on Qatari LNG), and increased costs for producing nitrogen fertilizers are all apparent costs of the cascading effects of this crisis.
Accordingly, another aspect negatively impacted by the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is the resilience of the global energy supply chain. The more resilient this chain, the less it is disrupted and the faster it can manage a crisis.
MA
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