TEHRAN- The Iranian Oil, Gas, and Petrochemical Products Exporters Union (OPEX) spokesman and oil and energy market analyst, pointing to the dependence of 700 refineries worldwide on oil produced in the Persian Gulf, believes: The world’s dependence on the Strait of Hormuz is not limited to crude oil; gas condensates, liquefied natural gas (LNG), refined petroleum products, and a portion of the region’s mineral and petrochemical exports also pass through this route.
Seyed Hamid Hosseini stated in an interview with IRNA, explaining the Islamic Republic of Iran’s strategy in managing the Strait of Hormuz to counter the American-Zionist coalition’s aggression against our country: Recent developments in the Persian Gulf and the disruption of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz have once again highlighted the vital role of this strategic passageway in the global economy; a passageway through which approximately 20 million barrels of oil pass daily. A serious disruption could place unprecedented pressure on energy markets and global supply chains.
He explained: In many wars, the initial reactions appear on the battlefield, but the deeper consequences usually manifest themselves in markets, supply chains, and the strategic calculations of governments. The recent aggression by the US and Israel against our country is no exception to this rule.
He added: Although at the beginning of this war, it was thought to be a quick and limited military conflict, increasing signs indicate that this crisis could become a far more decisive test, not only for the global economy but also for the stability of the international order.
Hosseini, stating that war economies usually form in two stages, the first being immediate and short-term, added: In this stage, markets react sharply, energy prices rise, panic buying intensifies, and investors move towards safe-haven assets.
He stated: The second stage, which emerges in the medium term, raises a more fundamental question: Are the involved parties truly prepared for a long-term conflict? In this stage, military power alone is no longer what matters; economic endurance, social resilience, and the ability to adapt to sustained disruptions will be decisive.
Simple statistics about Strait of Hormuz now important for world
The oil and energy market analyst believes that at the heart of this crisis lies the Strait of Hormuz; a narrow passage whose importance is often expressed with a simple statistic: about 20% of the world’s energy supply passes through this route. However, this statistic does not tell the whole truth. The main issue is not the total global oil production, but the share of oil and gas that is actually traded in international markets.
He noted: The world produces over 100 million barrels per day of crude oil and gas condensates, but a significant portion of it is consumed within the producing countries themselves. What shapes global markets is ‘traded oil’. From this perspective, the approximately 20 million barrels of oil that pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily carry much more weight in the global market. If this route were seriously disrupted, pressure would be applied not just to one-fifth of the world’s energy supply, but to nearly half of the oil circulating between producers and consumers.
Global economic chain suffers from traffic restrictions in Strait of Hormuz
Hosseini stated: The world’s dependence on the Strait of Hormuz is not limited to crude oil. Gas condensates, liquefied natural gas (LNG), refined petroleum products, and a portion of the region’s mineral and petrochemical exports also pass through this route. In such circumstances, any disruption in Hormuz would increase not only the price of oil but also the cost of natural gas, refined fuels, transportation, industrial raw materials, and ultimately production across a wide range of sectors.
He reminded: Agriculture, steel, automotive, chemical industries, and even the food supply chain are also directly or indirectly affected by the Strait of Hormuz.
Dependence of 700 refineries worldwide on oil produced in Persian Gulf
The OPEX spokesman cited the technical limitations of the global refining system as one reason why such a shock could be deep and long-lasting, emphasizing: Nearly 700 refineries worldwide are designed for specific grades of crude oil. Oil produced in the Persian Gulf differs from that of many other suppliers in terms of API gravity, chemical composition, and technical characteristics.
He continued: Refineries can adjust their feedstock to some extent through blending or operational changes, but these changes are neither quick, nor cheap, nor always economical. Therefore, the large-scale replacement of Persian Gulf oil, even if it seems possible on the surface, would face serious practical limitations.
Disruption in Strait of Hormuz pressures entire global economy
Hosseini added: If the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz lasts more than a few days and extends into the medium term, the economic pressure will quickly transfer from energy markets to the entire global economy. This is because energy remains one of the main components of the cost structure for goods and services, and a sharp increase in oil and gas prices typically creates an inflationary wave, raises production costs for manufacturers, and reduces consumers’ purchasing power.
He noted: For energy-importing economies, this shock is doubly painful; production becomes more expensive while demand decreases.
Hosseini further stated that according to the latest developments as of March 13, 2026, reports indicate that tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has sharply decreased, and the oil flow has almost been reduced to a ‘trickle’. According to a report by the International Energy Agency, about 20 million barrels per day of oil supply flow – equivalent to about 20% of global supply – has been disrupted.
He acknowledged: Meanwhile, oil prices have jumped again, exceeding $100 per barrel; a situation some analysts describe as the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market.
Hosseini referred to the first statements of the new leader of the Islamic Republic regarding “the leverage of closing the Strait of Hormuz must continue” and noted: This emphasis means that the Persian Gulf must remain closed to maintain pressure on the enemies.
MA
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