Tanking figures to become more and more enhanced as we approach the end of the NBA’s regular season.
Teams will be willing to do whatever it takes if one more loss can improve their chances of landing a higher pick in the draft lottery, given this year’s draft is expected to have a great deal of talent.
Plus, some teams already have deals in place in which they would lose their draft pick, based on trades from previous years.
Some of those deals include provisions, such as a pick landing among the top five or similar protection. That adds another layer to the tanking.
Specifically, the Pacers own the league’s worst record at 15-53. They are clearly incentivized to lose games at the risk of having to relinquish their lottery pick if it fell anywhere from fifth to ninth.
However, they care about two opponents this year, and they are the Knicks and Thunder. Oklahoma City defeated them in the NBA Finals last year, and the Knicks are longtime rivals.
Indy seemingly does get up for these games and are 4-0 against the spread in those meetings, including beating the defending champions outright for one of their 15 victories.
The Pacers visit the Knicks on Tuesday, and the spread is 16.5 points.
Indiana clearly is tanking, and I worry that might become a priority over competing against a rival. One method coach Rick Carlisle has implemented lately is playing reserves the entire fourth quarter.
Thus, I think we can isolate value in the first half, which should have a point spread in the neighborhood of 9.5 points.
Indy has been battling injuries and just welcomed Ivica Zubac to the starting lineup. However, he is on a minutes restriction and has not played in the second half.
That should give even more betting value to Indiana on the first-half line.
I have a 105-86-2 ATS record in this Post sports section, and my next play is the Pacers on the first-half line, which sits at 10.5 points at Hard Rock casino.
The Play: Pacers to cover first half spread +10.5 points (Hard Rock)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
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