Well, that was close.
No. 1 Duke was close to going down in the history books against No. 16 Siena, but the Blue Devils escaped with a 71-65 victory.
Survive and advance, and all of that, but the performance was enough to unsettle the betting market a bit, as Duke moved from +325 to +500 odds in the futures market.
TCU averted a different kind of disaster in the Round of 64.
The Horned Frogs led Ohio State by 15 points at halftime, but they watched that lead dissipate down the stretch, only to get rescued by a last-gasp winner by Xavier Edmonds.
Recency bias always plays a role in betting on March Madness, but what happens when neither team covered itself in glory in its previous win?
Let’s find out.
The Blue Devils are a 10.5-point favorite over No. 9 TCU in Saturday’s Round of 32 encounter.
Duke vs. TCU odds, prediction
It’s hard to know what to glean from Duke’s close-call against Siena.
It was one of the worst performances of the season from the Blue Devils, but they were also the best team in the country for their previous 34 games.
The one thing that does concern you is that Jon Scheyer had to lean on his starters for a lot more minutes than he would have hoped against Siena.
If things went according to plan, Cameron and Cayden Boozer, Isaiah Evans, and Dame Sarr would have all been on the pine for the last 10 minutes of Round 1.
Things didn’t go according to plan.
The good news is that the Boozer Bros. and their running mates will get plenty of time to rest if they can win Saturday.
The bad news is that, with Caleb Foster out and Patrick Ngongba doubtful, they’re going to need to play monster minutes against TCU.
Another positive is that this matchup should suit the Blue Devils. That may sound rich given how close they came to losing against Siena, but the tale of the tape points towards this being a mismatch.
Betting on College Basketball?
According to KenPom, Duke should be close to a 20-point favorite over TCU on a neutral court. That number ticks down when you account for the injuries, but it still paints a picture of the gap between these two clubs.
The Horned Frogs will need to rely on a terrific defense to slow down the Blue Devils, but if that unit cracks even a little bit, TCU will be in big trouble.
The Frogs just don’t have the scoring power to stick with Duke if the No. 1 seed handles things on its terms.
The Play: Duke -10.5 (FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: nypost.com
