How far could the Gulf conflict spread? A Kremlin aide has a warning

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Nikolay Patrushev, assistant to the president of the Russian Federation, has a stark assessment of the Iran war as it begins to ripple far beyond the Middle East. With shipping disrupted in the Strait of Hormuz, energy markets under strain, and maritime security deteriorating, the consequences are already being felt across global supply chains.

In an interview with Kommersant special correspondent Elena Chernenko, Patrushev outlines how the conflict is reshaping trade routes, testing alliances, and accelerating a broader reordering of the global economy.

Q: Kevin Hassett, the US presidents economic adviser, recently announced that oil tankers are once again passing through the Strait of Hormuz. However, shipping volumes through the strait remain far below the levels seen prior to the US and Israels war against Iran. What is your assessment of the situation in the region, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz?

Nikolay Patrushev: For years, the Strait of Hormuz has been a vital link in global supply chains, but these have now been largely disrupted. The area is becoming a zone of conflict, posing a danger to shipping. The current conflict appears ready to set back the established system of global trade and economic relations by years. Operation ‘Epic Fury’ has indeed become the catalyst for a reshuffling of the global energy market and the collapse of maritime logistics. There is nothing ‘epic’ about this ‘fury’, the world is instead witnessing a tragedy with unpredictable humanitarian and economic consequences. Oil and gas equipment has been damaged, the waters of the Persian Gulf have been severely polluted, port infrastructure has been destroyed, populations are suffering and cultural and historical treasures are being lost. Merchant ships from many different countries have been damaged or destroyed by the hostilities. Prices for energy resources, freight rates for the largest maritime container lines and insurance costs are rising. Global exports of fertilizers are declining, negatively impacting the agro-industrial complex in Asia, Africa, and Europe.

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