National security: Australians know we’re under threat, and underprepared

National security in Australia has long seemed an elite endeavour – kept apart from the public through the coded language of experts, bureaucrats and don’t-rock-the-boat politics. That was never exactly democratic and it just won’t work any more in a new world of cascading shocks that affect us all.

Comprehensive new evidence shows that most Australians are worried about security, see multiple looming risks, and think the nation is underprepared.

Our recent surveys show that large majorities, between 72 and 78 per cent of the population, perceive the following issues as serious concerns over the next decade: cyber threats, AI-enabled attacks, terrorism, violent extremism, economic crisis, supply-chain disruption, disinformation, foreign interference and the failure of the global rules-based order.

In recognising this new world of risk, people also want government to tell them more about what is going on. If we want security to belong to all Australians, the place to start is to speak with them, not at them. This in turn begins with listening. My organisation, the National Security College at the Australian National University, has made a respectful start.

Over the past two years we’ve travelled and listened far beyond Canberra to hold the largest consultation of community attitudes on security ever conducted in this country. The results are out today and they are confronting.

Our findings cover three waves of opinion surveys totalling more than 20,000 adult Australians representing every demographic segment, plus eight focus groups and close to 500 interviews reaching urban, rural and remote locations in every state and territory. So, what do Australians really think about our nation’s security in this new world of risk?

Citizens have shown strategic judgment on everything from community cohesion to military threats, foreign interference to climate change, terrorism to disinformation, the downsides of AI to the risks – now the reality – of crisis in our economic supply chains.

Their views include plenty of commonsense and logical analysis about sensitive security issues, where the risk-averse option for governments of all persuasions has often been to give the public jargon or silence rather than an informed two-way conversation.

The bad news – which the nation needs to confront with honesty – is that public anxiety is rising across a wide spectrum of issues. The number of Australians who say they are worried about the nation’s security has risen rapidly, from a minority to a two-third majority between November 2024 and February 2026. And that was before the current Iran war and its impacts. Most Australians think the nation is in for multiple intersecting strategic shocks within the next five years, many with major consequences. War overseas, economic crisis and supply-chain failure are just three.

Our data shows that Australians view security as about safety, resilience and, above all, the continuity of everyday life. They rate most serious the threats they already feel, related to technology, economics, disinformation, climate and social cohesion. A threat many of them consider catastrophic – foreign military attack – is also the one most see as least likely, though a large minority still consider it could happen within five years.

In July 2025 we asked people to rate 15 threats by probability and consequence. In every case other than military attack, more than two-thirds considered the risk more likely than not to “happen as a threat to Australia” within five years. In six cases – climate change impacts, AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, foreign interference, economic crisis and critical supply disruption – the proportion that considered the threat more likely than not was between 85 and 89 per cent. Australians also know that the lucky country is not the ready country.

On none of the 15 security risks we presented do more than 18 per cent of people think the nation is “very” or “fully” prepared. And across two-thirds of the threats, more than half the public feels Australia is “not prepared at all” or only “slightly prepared”.

Of course, government must set priorities, and people do not consider all these issues as unmanageable shocks. A severe economic crisis stood out as the issue where people see the highest risk combination of likelihood and impact.

Economic hardship was also a reason for fellow Australians to logically disengage from security issues. Focus groups highlighted daily economic pain and a sense of anxiety without agency. These discussions also showed an appreciation of the communication challenge. Many people recognised that it is hard for government to tell the full story about security threats without causing panic.

Even so, overall our surveys show 53 per cent of Australians think government shares too little or far too little information about security threats. Only 4 per cent think it shares too much.

The good news is that we also encountered a spirit of community strength across much of our dispersed and diverse population. And despite all the daily headlines about a divided and polarised community, there is some reassuring evidence of unity. Our surveys show that most Australians want “safe and peaceful communities” as the foremost national priority, ahead of economic prosperity, democracy or a more abstract “strengthening Australia’s security”.

Australians do not lack a sense of civic responsibility. In the aftermath of the antisemitic terrorist attack at Bondi, we asked people to what extent they agreed that “all Australians can do more to make our communities peaceful and safe”. In response, 71 per cent agreed, 32 per cent strongly. Only 8 per cent disagreed.

The word security literally means “without care” or, as Australians might say, no worries. That does not mean ignoring danger. Most Australians know security risks are real, doubt the nation is prepared, know the issues are complex, and are open to knowing more. This is a profound challenge and an opportunity for our political class. Their security worries may be troubling news for government and our political class – but they also open the door to a national conversation. Better we have that soon, before more shocks strike home.

Professor Rory Medcalf is head of the ANU National Security College.

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