US Navy declares Australia ready to start hosting nuclear subs ‘today’

Washington: The US Navy has dispelled doubts about Australia’s readiness to host American and British nuclear-powered submarines at HMAS Stirling next year, declaring the boats could be sent there “today”.

Admiral Samuel Paparo, the commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, was asked during a US Senate hearing about Australia’s upgrades at the naval base that would allow foreign subs to start being based there in 2027, which is the current AUKUS timeline.

“We could move submarines to Stirling today – that’s been the progress at Stirling,” he said. “I laid eyes on it multiple times. The commitment is there, the progress is there.”

Questioned by Democratic senator Tim Kaine, Paparo reiterated that the major constraint on the $368 billion-plus deal was the industrial capacity of the three countries involved: the US, Australia and the UK.

“The place where we have to make the most progress is in the defence industrial base,” Paparo said. “But our partners in Australia, UK … it has been full throttle. It’s now as much up to industry as anything else.”

The comments appeared to quell unease from some AUKUS watchers in Washington and elsewhere that HMAS Stirling would not be ready to host a US Virginia-class submarine by next year.

Abe Denmark, who was one of the architects of AUKUS as a senior adviser to president Joe Biden’s defence secretary, said last week there were “a lot of questions about Australia’s ability to meet those timelines”.

“Australia is going to need to meet some pretty aggressive benchmarks to get there,” he told this masthead. “I know that folks in the US government are watching those developments very closely.”

Brent Sadler, a former navy submariner who is now a defence expert at the conservative Heritage Foundation, which has strong links to the Trump administration, said on Tuesday (US time) he was still sceptical about whether next year’s milestone would be met.

He noted that the US Navy had yet to publicly name the submarine to be sent to Perth or announce its arrival date. Congress is typically given 12 months’ notice of a change of home port.

“That’s a key milestone that I think we all need to meet if AUKUS is going to remain politically viable in both Australia and the United States,” Sadler said.

This masthead reported on Wednesday that the Pentagon’s new submarine-building tsar, Robert Gaucher, said the navy’s top priority was its new Columbia-class nuclear-powered submarine, rather than the older Virginia-class vessel that Australia is depending on.

The navy maintains that the production rate of the Virginia must increase from 1.3 boats a year to more than two, if it is to fulfil its AUKUS commitments to Australia.

Speaking at the Sea Air Space conference on Tuesday (US time), Gaucher said that in 2011, a Virginia-class submarine took 13 million man-hours to build, but today takes 70 million.

He repeated his remarks about the new Columbia-class being the top priority, but added there was “no room for compromise on Virginia, we still need to keep Virginia on plan”.

Sadler said there was a case for Australia to invest more than the current $US3 billion ($4.19 billion) it has already committed to the US submarine industrial base.

“The only number that matters is the production rate of submarines,” he said. “If you don’t address that positively, and if the Australians are not paying significantly enough into it to make a difference, then the whole thing blows up before it even begins.”

A spokesperson for Defence Minister Richard Marles said the industrial capacity of all three AUKUS countries – including production and sustainment – was a known challenge, but the project’s milestones were being met.

AUKUS will continue to come under the spotlight in Washington this week as former defence minister-turned-lobbyist Christopher Pyne hosts his annual summit, which will feature Australian Navy chief Mark Hammond.

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