The only real suspense in the draw of Kentucky Derby post positions is which runner will get the “dreaded rail,” where the horse is in danger of being squeezed, bumped or shuffled back — or maybe all three — as competitors close in from his outside.
The tension for this year’s Derby didn’t last long Saturday at Churchill Downs. The second position assigned was No. 1.
The horse drawn for that spot? The favorite, Renegade.
“That’s brutal,” analyst Larry Collmus said on FanDuel TV.
It was also business — and bad Derby luck — as usual for Renegade’s owner Mike Repole, who is still in search of his first win in the race. Twice in the last three years, and also in 2011, Repole brought a promising horse to the Derby and had to scratch him before post time.
At least Renegade is in the field, and Nick Tammaro, making the Derby morning line for the first time, still has the Arkansas Derby winner as the 4-1 favorite in the field of 20. But it won’t surprise anyone if either of two horses trained by Brad Cox, Florida Derby winner Commandment (No. 6) or Blue Grass champion Further Ado (No. 18), leave the gate with lower odds. They are co-second choices at 6-1.
No horse has won from the rail since Ferdinand in 1986, though that’s not the longest drought for any post position. No. 14 last produced a winner in 1961, while others without a winner for a long time include No. 12 (1971), No. 9 (1972) and No. 2 (1978). And No. 17 has never seen a winner in 46 attempts.
The field, which is determined by a series of races that awards points to top finishers, was uncertain as late as Saturday morning. That’s when trainer Steve Asmussen opted to wait for the Preakness with Chip Honcho, who hasn’t raced since a poor showing five weeks ago in the Louisiana Derby.
That decision moved Litmus Test into the field, giving Bob Baffert two starters as he bids for his seventh Derby win, which would break a tie with Ben Jones for the most in the race’s 152-year history. Baffert also has Potente, who won the San Felipe Stakes last month at Santa Anita before finishing second to So Happy in the Santa Anita Derby.
So Happy has the best morning-line odds (15-1) of the five horses coming from Southern California, followed by Potente (20-1), Litmus Test (30-1), Doug O’Neill’s Pavlovian and Jeff Mullins’ Intrepido (50-1).
Baffert is one of three trainers with multiple entries, along with Cox (three) and Riley Mott (two), whose father, Bill, won last year’s race with Sovereignty and has Chief Wallabee (8-1) this year.
Cox knows better than anyone that starting multiple horses in the Derby guarantees nothing more than having to secure more seats for more owners. He started three in 2022 and his best finish was seventh. The next year he started four and his best finish was third.
There have been 30 other times when a trainer started three or more horses in the same Derby, and just four times did that trainer win: D. Wayne Lukas, from three starters in 1995 and five in 1996, and Todd Pletcher, from four runners in 2010 and three in 2017.
Cox is one of seven trainers in the field with a previous Derby victory, though he’s the only one who doesn’t have a winner’s circle photo. Mandaloun was not declared the 2021 Derby until early 2022 when Baffert’s Medina Spirit was disqualified for a drug positive.
The Louisville native said last week that were he to win Saturday, it would “without a doubt” feel like he was winning for the first time since he missed out on “the thrill of victory.”
“Hopefully looking forward to that,” Cox said, “and it would be great if it’s (Saturday).”
Along with Baffert, the other winning trainers in this year’s field are Bill Mott, O’Neill and Pletcher with two each, and Gustavo Delgado and Kenny McPeek with one.
Four horses (including O’Neill’s Robusta) were entered and placed on the also-eligible list. They will be able to run only if there are any scratches before 9 a.m. EDT Friday.
Kentucky Derby field
Here’s the full field for the Kentucky Derby, with jockey and morning-line odds:
1. Renegade (Irad Ortiz Jr.) 4-1
2. Albus (Manny Franco) 30-1
3. Intrepido (Hector Berrios) 50-1
4. Litmus Test (Martin Garcia) 30-1
5. Right to Party (Chris Elliott) 30-1
6. Commandment (Luis Saez) 6-1
7. Danon Bourbon (Atsuya Nishimura) 20-1
8. So Happy (Mike Smith) 15-1
9. The Puma (Javier Castellano) 10-1
10. Wonder Dean (Ryusei Sakai) 30-1
11. Incredibolt (Jaime Torres) 20-1
12. Chief Wallabee (Junior Alvarado) 8-1
13. Silent Tactic (Cristian Torres) 20-1
14. Potente (Juan Hernandez) 20-1
15. Emerging Market (Flavien Prat) 15-1
16. Pavlovian (Edwin Maldonado) 30-1
17. Six Speed (Brian Hernandez Jr.) 50-1
18. Further Ado (John Velazquez) 6-1
19. Golden Tempo (Jose Ortiz) 30-1
20. Fulleffort (Tyler Gaffalione) 20-1
AE21. Great White (Alex Achard)
AE22. Ocelli (Joe Ramos)
AE23. Robusta (Emisael Jaramillo)
AE24. Corona de Oro (Brian Hernandez Jr.)
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Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: latimes.com
