The only first-round series of the Stanley Cup Playoffs that’s gone the distance is here for good reason.
The Canadiens and Lightning will clash in Game 7 on Sunday after a 1-0 overtime thriller, sealed by Tampa Bay grinder Gage Goncalves, who punched plane tickets back to Tampa.
This series has been microscopically close: all six games have been decided by one goal (four of which in overtime) and the Under has cashed five times.
With some veteran edge, the Lightning are -155 moneyline favorites at bet365 Sportsbook, with the goal total unsurprisingly set down at 5.5.
Canadiens vs. Lightning prediction, best bet
We’re looking at structurally low-event hockey because of evenly matched systems. Instead of clean carries into the zone, we’re seeing lots of forced dump-ins as both sides are mirroring one another by stacking the blue line.
There’s no time and space out there and we’re seeing it affect star players. Montreal leading-goal scorer Cole Caufield has potted one lonely goal, which was on the power play, while point-leader Nick Suzuki is scoreless.
Nikita Kucherov, who finished the regular season with the league’s second-most points at 130, has scored only once.
In turn, both clubs have tallied 14 total goals apiece and there has only been one two-goal lead at any point in the series — a 2-0 Montreal lead in Game 4 that was squandered.
We can’t look at 5-on-5 play and discover any palpable edge, either. Goals at 5-on-5 are also even at nine apiece while Tampa holds a razor-thin edge in expected goals for at 10.7 to 10.1, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Aside from defensive execution, goaltending has been paramount. While there have been more 50/50 retrievals than skill-driven attacks, it’s still not as though Andrei Vasilevskiy and Jakub Dobeš have had an easy workload. Vasilevskiy has turned aside 24 of 29 high-danger chances, compared to Dobeš, who has stopped 18 of 21.
Vasilevskiy, hot off a 30-save shutout, is no stranger to Game 7s. In four career starts, he’s polished a 1.51 goals-against average and .945 save percentage.
The whole series has come down to a bounce, so let’s not expect that trend to change in the final stage.
The play: Under 5.5 (-145, bet365)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: nypost.com
