2026 PGA Championship expert picks to win, sleepers to watch at Aronimink

J.J. Spaun could win. 

Or Xander Schauffele. Or Bryson DeChambeau. Or any of the players at this week’s PGA Championship not named Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy. 

Or not.

Over the past year-plus, the majors have been Scheffler and McIlroy — and everyone else. The duo have won four of the past five (and five of the past nine), and you’d be OK in thinking that it’ll be the world’s two highest-ranked players against the field at the PGA. But Scheffler and McIlroy haven’t won every major. After all, there might be a Spaun, who won last year’s U.S. Open. 

Who could that be at Aronimink Golf Club just outside of Philly? Some help is below, where’ll you find a list of the top five players in the odds below Scheffler and McIlroy, along with to-win and sleeper selections from members of our staff. 

2026 PGA Championship top five players in the odds list, minus Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy

– Cam Young, +1,200. With Young, you’re getting this year’s winner of the Players Championship and the Cadillac Championship, and a player who tied for third at the Masters. He’s also ranked second this year in strokes gained: total. 

– Jon Rahm, +1,600. Rahm has finished no worse than a tie for eighth in LIV Golf play this year, and he’s won twice. 

– Xander Schauffele, +1,800. Schauffele finished third at the Players and tied for ninth at the Masters. He’s also won two of the past nine majors. 

– Bryson DeChambeau, +2,000. DeChambeau has won twice on the LIV Golf circuit this year. He also won the 2020 and 2024 U.S. Opens. 

– Ludvig Aberg, +2,000. Aberg has finished in the top eight or better in five of his past six tournaments. He’s also ranked third this year on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: total.  

What about the sleepers? Some thoughts on those players listed exactly at 100-1

– Alex Fitzpatrick: He won the Zurich Classic with his brother, Matt. A week later, he tied for ninth at the Cadillac Championship. A week after that, he finished fourth at the Truist Championship. 

– Gary Woodland: He won this year at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. He’s also the emotional favorite, after he revealed earlier this year that he’s fighting PTSD following a brain procedure. 

– Thomas Detry: He’s fourth this year in the LIV Golf standings. 

– Ben Griffin: He won three times last year. Two weeks ago, he finished third at the Cadillac Championship. 

– Harris English: He’s missed one cut in 12 starts this year on the PGA Tour. 

– Jason Day: Day has missed two cuts in 11 starts this year on the PGA Tour. 

2026 PGA Championship expert picks to win, sleepers to watch

Josh Berhow 

To-win: Cameron Young, +1,200. I can’t remember a major where I last thought the list of potential winners was so slim, but that’s where I landed here with the top three. The way Rory, Scottie and Cam Young are playing, I can’t get myself to look further down the odds list. I’ll pick Cam, whose Sunday 74 at the Truist was nothing more than an outlier.

Sleeper pick: Kristoffer Reitan, +8,000. Don’t overthink it — he just won on Sunday and is still a long shot! All of these guys are good — but it’s hard not to like the one who was just better than everyone through 72 holes.

James Colgan 

To-win: Brooks Koepka, +4,000. A major championship on a big, burly, Northeast golf course? Yep, sounds like an ideal setting for Koepka, whose game has shown some sneaky signs of life.

Sleeper pick: Daniel Berger, +22,500. I probably wouldn’t take him to win this golf tournament, but it wouldn’t shock me if he delivered a surprisingly competitive performance in Philly.

Dylan Dethier   

To-win: Cameron Young, +1,200. It’s Cameron Young. It’s Cameron Young! The secret’s out. Look, it’s been fun to watch Young put his best stuff on display, from the Ryder Cup to the Players to the Masters to Miami a couple weeks ago. But I do feel a twinge of the-band-I-like-just-went-platinum. I was listening to Young’s old stuff, just so you guys know. Anyway, if you give me any old-school Northeast golf course right now, I will give you Cameron Young as a surefire contender. A tie for fourth at Oakmont was a sign of things to come. That Ryder Cup statement was too. Here comes Cameron.

Sleeper pick: Matt McCarty, +15,000. McCarty is playing really, really well. Don’t sleep on him! And let’s plunge much deeper for Ben Polland (+200,000), a talented club pro who could clock a top 40 here if all goes well.

Jack Hirsh 

To win: Cameron Young, +1,200. Cameron Young got his first PGA Tour win at a classic Donald Ross course, so I wouldn’t be shocked if one of the game’s two hottest players got another one at Aronimink. Would feel like a very satisfying peak to this heater he is on.

Sleeper pick: Jordan Spieth, +8,000. Let’s have some fun, shall we. Grand slam, here we come.

Jessica Marksbury

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +450. This is a pattern for me, it seems — picking the World No. 1 to win a major. But apparently I’m in the minority in this Cameron Young-hyped group! Scheffler needs no introduction here, but I’ll lay out a few creds anyway: He’s the defending champ, his worst finish of the year is a tie for 24th, and his past three finishes were runner-ups (Masters, RBC Heritage, Cadillac Championship). C’mon, that’s gotta light a fire! He’s winning this week.

Sleeper pick: Min Woo Lee, +6,000. Aronimink feels like a course where Min Woo can shine and play to his off-the-tee strengths. Plus, he’s been trending up recently, finishing tied for 18th at the Cadillac and tied for 14th at last week’s Truist.

Nick Piastowski 

To-win: Ludvig Aberg, +2,000. Over his past six tournaments, Aberg has posted five top 10s, and he’s ranked third this year on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: total. He’ll win a few majors. This week, he wins his first. 

Sleeper pick: Gary Woodland, +10,000. This would be one of the better stories in golf — but Woodland has also played solid golf this year. He’s posted four top 25 finishes, including a win. 

Josh Schrock

To-win: Cameron Young, +1,200. You can make the case that Cam Young has been the second-best golfer in the world since he switched golf balls and caddies almost a year ago. Hit the shots down the stretch to win at TPC Sawgrass and just ran over the field at Doral. Had the lead on Sunday at the Masters and watched Rory zip by him. Much like when McIlroy blew the 2011 Masters and responded to win the next major, I think Cam’s time comes at Aronimink. 

Sleeper pick: Rickie Fowler, +5,000: I’m just going to go back to the sleeper well with Fowler. He has been playing consistently good golf this season and has rediscovered the feel with his putter. Carded top-10s at the RBC Heritage and Doral. Could easily see him contending in Philly with his iron game.

Josh Sens

To-win: Scottie Scheffler, +400. This is the Occam’s razor equivalent of golf handicapping. He’s still the best player in the world. In his past five majors, his worst finish is a tie for seventh. He is guaranteed to contend. He will probably win. He is the favorite for a reason. 

Sleeper pick: Keegan Bradley, +9,000. His heart might still be broken from the Ryder Cup, but his game has been coming together nicely lately. And we know he relishes the big stages. 

Johnny Wunder  

To-win: Jon Rahm, +1,600. He’s still in my heart and mind the main contender to dethrone Scottie. The trick is getting him to cook in the majors, which typically comes down to the putter. If his putting is just serviceable and he strikes it normal, he’s a serious threat. He’s going to win a major this year. 

Sleeper pick: Patrick Cantlay, +4,500. Great ballpark for him, especially if the scores are low, which I’ve heard they might try to encourage. Pat is still the quiet assassin he’s always been. If he can get into the top of the board early in the week, my hunch is he stays there till the end. 

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