PGA Championship weekend betting guide: 3 picks our gambling expert loves

Welcome to our PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a host and regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on X at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his after-the-cut picks below for the weekend at the 2026 PGA Championship.

We were correct in guessing that the rain was going to make the scoring a little easier on Thursday and that it would get progressively more difficult as the temperatures increased, the rain dried up, and the greens became firmer and faster as the week went on. I certainly did not guess, however, that it would be as difficult as it has been at Aronimink Golf Club for the 108th edition of the PGA Championship. Early in the week, golf oddsmakers projected the winning score would be around 12 under par. After 36 holes, I’m not so sure we make it to double-digits.

Tour veterans Maverick McNealy and Alex Smalley share the lead at the half-way point at 4-under par. Quite a few big names are looking to chase them down over the weekend, including Ludvig Aberg, Cameron Young, Min Woo Lee, Chris Gotterup, Hideki Matsuyama, and World No. 1, Scottie Scheffler, who is two shots off the pace in his effort as the defending champion.

Each of the last 36 winners of the PGA Championship, have been within six shots of the lead after 36 holes. Eighty-two players have made the cut at Aronimink and 56 of those players are within six shots or fewer of the lead. That is not that dissimilar from an entire Signature Event-sized field that, according to over three decades of history, has a chance to get their hands on the Wanamaker Trophy. Only eight shots separate the leaders from the cut line.

Moving Day ought to be very interesting. I believe the PGA of America was very intentional with its difficult pin placements on the greens on Friday. I have a feeling they will make these much more accessible on Saturday and allow for some possible fireworks. However, after seeing just about every player in a sweater for the first two rounds, temperatures are expected to jump into the low 80s with wind in the neighborhood of 10-20 mph likely still lingering. While the set up may look to produce more scoring, the weather will just make the course and the greens even firmer and faster. It appears there will be very little wind on Sunday but the heat is supposed to continue to build. We may get some fireworks, yes, but this golf course is going to continue to be very challenging.

So, who might that be that is going to put their name on that trophy? What have we learned after two rounds that we can use going forward?

Let’s begin by checking in on our pre-tournament selections. Unfortunately, Russell Henley and Adam Scott have missed the cut but our remaining half-dozen players are looking just fine. Jordan Spieth, Xander Schauffele, Rickie Fowler, and Sahith Theegala are all tied for 30th at 1-over par, five shots off the pace. Kurt Kitayama and Patrick Cantlay are 1-under, three shots behind McNealy and Smalley.

Cantlay and Kitayama are both tied for sixth in the field through two rounds for Strokes Gained: Tee to Green but both are losing strokes to the field with the putter. Similarly, Spieth is fourth for SG: Off the Tee, 27th on approach, ninth in Greens in Regulation, but is losing nearly a full stroke to the field with the putter.

With half of the championship still left to go, here are three players I would consider using going forward if you don’t have them in pocket already.

Min Woo Lee (15-1)

Lee leads this field through two rounds for SG: Tee to Green and look out, because he is a very good putter, ranking 47th on Tour for SG: Putting, yet he is just barely gaining anything on this field on the greens so far, ranking 63rd in this field currently for SG: Putting. He is really doing everything very well. Even the putting is slightly to the positive and is not losing ground to the field — but if Lee’s putter just returns slightly to its usual form, he is definitely going to be a factor.

Patrick Cantlay (33-1)

There were two birdie putts coming down the stretch on Friday that just burned the edge for Cantlay. Had those gone in, he’d be one shot off the lead and probably trading at a third of what is his current price. We wrote about the run Cantlay has been on coming into this championship, finishing 7-12-8-10 in his last four starts. Putting hasn’t ever really been his strongest suit but he hasn’t been completely awful this season either — and in his last start, last week in Charlotte, Cantlay finished the Truist Championship ranked 10th in that field for SG: Putting, gaining nearly four strokes on the field. I have to believe the flatstick will turn to the positive here at Aronimink over the weekend and Cantlay makes a bid for his first-ever major championship.

Jordan Spieth (105-1)

This is a long shot at this point but not many were giving Spieth much of a chance before this championship started. Through two rounds, he has played fantastic golf but just has not been able to hole a putt. Part of our reason for making Spieth a pre-tournament selection was his short game and that is really what has been holding him back so far. He is tied for 11th in this field for SG: Tee to Green. He’s No. 1 in Driving Accuracy, and is ninth for Greens in Regulation. Let’s remember, there are only 82 players left in this field. Spieth ranks 36th for Scrambling and is 74th for SG: Putting. If he continues with the ball striking the way it has been going so far, I believe his short game woes will turn for the better and that he will give himself at least one chance to make a serious run.