5-star analyst resets Nvidia stock price target ahead of earnings

Nvidia (NVDA) stock closed the May 15 trading session 4.42% down at $225.32, according to Yahoo Finance.

Other semiconductor stocks also dipped:

• Micron closed 6.62% lower at $724.66

• Intel closed 6.18% lower at $108.77

• AMD closed 5.69% lower at $424.1

• Broadcom closed 3.32% lower at $425.19

• Marvell closed 3.12% lower at $176.89

The stocks started their rally after March 30, and made the following gains:

• Intel gained 164.06%

• Micron gained 125.18%

• AMD gained 116.33%

• Marvell gained 101.44%

• Broadcom gained 44.91%

• Nvidia gained 36.41%

There have been many factors that contributed to the rally, including hyperscalers increasing their capital expenditure plans, Bank of America revising its server CPU sales forecasts, and Intel’s Q1 earnings boosting confidence in the semiconductor sector.

But why is the semiconductor rally having a hiccup?

UBS sends a warning on semiconductor stocks

UBS analysts said in their recent research note that, after conducting quantitative analysis, they found that 8 of the 12 largest global semiconductor companies by market capitalization are extremely crowded long, according to Proactive.

They said that hyperscalers are shifting from asset-light to asset-heavy business models. They believe this will lead to a decline in cash flow return on investment (CFROI) over the next three years.

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UBS analysts noted that Nvidia’s CFROI is expected to reach 82% this year. They see this as a risk, as only 0.09% of global stocks have historically sustained returns above 50% for five years, and just 0.02% for ten years.

In addition to this UBS warning, Nvidia Q1 fiscal year 2027 earnings are set to be released on May 20.

It has become almost a tradition that Nvidia’s stock crashes after earnings, despite consistently beating the outlook.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang explained this phenomenon at the all-hands meeting after the Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings. “If we delivered a bad quarter, it is evidence there’s an AI bubble. If we delivered a great quarter, we are fueling the AI bubble.”

It seems the nervousness among semiconductor stock investors peaks near Nvidia’s report, so this might also be causing the dip.

Contrary to sentiment, Goldman Sachs raised its EPS forecast for Nvidia ahead of earnings.

TD Cowen raises Nvidia stock price target

TD Cowen analyst Joshua Buchalter also updated his opinion on Nvidia stock ahead of earnings, according to Investing.

Buchalter is one of the analysts with the best track records out there. His TipRanks profile shows he ranks 69th out of 12,243 Wall Street analysts, with a 72% success rate and an average return of 43.3%.

He noted that according to Nvidia’s management, the order pipeline for Blackwell and Rubin products exceeds $1 trillion. He sees this as potential upside to Wall Street consensus estimates and extended visibility.

The analyst expects Nvidia to beat its quarterly revenue outlook by approximately $1 billion to $2 billion.

Buchalter reiterated a buy rating for Nvidia stock and raised the price target to $275 from $235. The price increase is based on Nvidia’s strong fundamentals and ongoing hyperscaler capital expenditure expansion, as Nvidia continues to hold a majority share of that spending.

In a research note from May 13, shared with me, Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya and his team reset the stock price target for AMD, which is one of Nvidia’s competitors, and updated their opinion on Nvidia stock. He ranks as 80th, with a 65% success rate and an average return of 28.5%.

Arya reiterated a buy rating for Nvidia stock and raised the price target to $320 from $300, based on a 28 multiple of his estimate for price-to-earnings ratio excluding cash for calendar year 2027, which is within Nvidia’s historical forward year P/E range of 25 to 56.

Bank of America analysts noted downside risks for Nvidia:

• Weakness in the consumer-driven gaming market

• Competition with major public firms

• Larger-than-expected impact from restrictions on compute shipments to China

• Lumpy and unpredictable sales in new enterprise, data center, and auto markets

• Potential for decelerating capital returns

• Enhanced government scrutiny of Nvidia’s dominant market position in AI chips

Related: Bank of America revamps Intel stock price target

This story was originally published by TheStreet on May 16, 2026, where it first appeared in the Investing section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.