India’s journey towards becoming a developed economy by 2047 with a GDP of $30 trillion to $40 trillion depends not just on sustaining high GDP growth in numbers, but on ensuring that such growth is credible, consistent, green and broad-based. In this effort, our states have a responsibility to do better than what they have been doing to contribute to the national effort. The key challenge lies in subnational implementation, where growth outcomes are shaped.
Given India’s federal structure, aligning state-level strategies, fiscal capacities and institutional readiness with national priorities is critical. Encouragingly, several state governments have begun articulating long-term economic visions and setting ambitious GSDP targets for 2047, reflecting both intent and a strengthening of competitive federalism.
For instance, Tamil Nadu targets an economy of $4.5-5 trillion by 2047, supported by a strong nominal growth trajectory of around 16 per cent, as outlined in its Economic Survey 2025-26. Uttar Pradesh has set a goal of reaching $6 trillion, while Maharashtra aims for $5 trillion, Similarly, Telangana has outlined a $3 trillion target, Andhra Pradesh is aiming for $2.4 trillion, and Madhya Pradesh has set a goal of achieving a $2 trillion economy by 2047.
While these targets reflect the momentum of competitive federalism, they remain far from being realistic. If the states are expected to contribute roughly 40 per cent to India’s target of $40 trillion, their combined share would be around $16 trillion. If we add up the data given above, the existing targets of six states crosses $23 trillion. The challenge, therefore, is to set ambitious, yet nationally reconciled targets, backed by credible roadmaps and institutional capacity. This is a task for the Niti Aayog. What it will also need to do is to see what other states have targeted and how to reconcile it with the national dream.
Here, let’s take example of the state of Rajasthan. The state has set an impossible target of becoming an astounding $4.3 trillion economy by 2047, as outlined in its Vision Document reflecting its aspiration to emerge as a major economic hub. With a projected GSDP of nearly Rs 19 lakh crores (around $0.23 trillion) in 2025-26, Rajasthan has sustained steady growth, though recent trends show some moderation, declining from 11.77 per cent in 2024-25 to 10.24 per cent.
Achieving this target would require Rajasthan’s economy to expand nearly nineteen-fold over the next two decades, implying sustained nominal growth of around 15 per cent, well above its current 11-12 per cent trajectory. At the present trends, the state is more likely to reach $2.5-2.8 trillion by 2047, falling well short of its stated ambition and lagging behind the more industrialised states.
A key constraint lies in fiscal management. Rajasthan’s revenue deficit of around 1.1 per cent of GSDP suggests that borrowings continue to fund current expenditures such as salaries, pensions and subsidies, rather than capital formation, limiting its ability to crowd in private investment. In contrast, fiscally stronger states such as Gujarat and Odisha are in a much better position to channel borrowing towards productive infrastructure and development spending.
While Rajasthan has increased its capex to approximately Rs 53,978 crores in 2026-27, the challenge lies in the quality and efficiency of spending, not just its scale. Without a shift towards outcome-driven investment, growth risks remaining incremental. Strengthening budget monitoring through transparent, outcome-based frameworks, along with periodic independent assessment of schemes such as Special Assistance to States for Capital Investment (SASCI) and more actionable audit reporting, will be critical to improving expenditure efficiency and minimising leakages.
Equally significant are governance and bureaucratic constraints, which continue to shape the investment climate. Red tape, weak inter-departmental coordination, legal ambiguities and procedural delays remain persistent challenges. Frequent administrative transfers disrupt implementation, while on-ground regulatory hurdles deter private investment. Even well-conceived policy measures highlighted in this year’s budget, such as plug-and-play industrial parks, cluster development, along with deregulation, and risks of underperformance remain, thus ensuring that the implementation is uneven.
Addressing these bottlenecks requires systemic reform rather than incremental fixes. Introducing a bonus-malus framework for bureaucratic accountability and institutionalising Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA), through a dedicated commission, would enable evidence-based policymaking, enhance regulatory predictability, and position Rajasthan as a leader in governance reform. Further, embedding technologies such as blockchain in public administration can enhance transparency, reduce discretion and build trust in state systems.
Importantly, Rajasthan’s long-term vision is not without merit. The state has correctly identified key thrust sectors which align with its natural endowments and comparative advantages. Renewable energy and tourism, in particular, offers a significant opportunity for scaling growth while aligning with sustainability goals. However, sectoral prioritisation must be complemented by robust roadmaps grounded in institutional capacity and fiscal discipline to unlock their full potential.
Political leadership will evolve over time with people in power getting replaced, but independent institutions and citizens will continue to remain watchdogs. This is not an argument against ambition. Ambition is necessary as it drives momentum, shapes narratives, and mobilises stakeholders. But ambition must be credible, adaptive, and rooted in execution capacity. Otherwise, it risks becoming rhetorical rather than transformational.
The broader lesson extends much beyond Rajasthan, underscoring the need for credible, implementation-driven growth strategies. The focus must shift from headline targets to the quality, inclusivity and resilience of growth. While the Centre has introduced enabling measures, outcomes depend on state-level implementation, where capability and coordination gaps persist.
Pradeep S. Mehta is the secretary-general of CUTS International, a 42-year-old leading global public policy research and advocacy group. Tasmita Sengupta works for CUTS International
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