CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting guide: 7 picks our expert loves this week

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a host and regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on X at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson, which gets underway Thursday in Texas.

It feels good to get a break for a minute from the “major” events that have dominated the PGA Tour schedule for the last six weeks. It’s on to a good old-fashioned birdie-fest deep in the heart of Texas as for the sixth year in a row, the CJ Cup Byron Nelson will be held at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas.

I like to call these next three weeks “The Legendary Swing,” as we go from the Byron Nelson to Ben Hogan’s place, Colonial Country Club, next week in Fort Worth, only to be followed by the Memorial at Jack Nicklaus’ place in Dublin, Ohio. It’s a great lead up to the season’s third major, the U.S. Open, which will be held at Shinnecock Hills in New York. Scottie Scheffler will be looking to complete the career grand slam at Shinnecock — but first, he’ll be looking to defend his title here at Lord Byron’s place.

Scheffler went “Star Trek” last season, boldly going where no man has gone before, getting to 31 under par and winning by eight shots. Reinforcements were immediately called in to investigate, and with the help of Lanny Wadkins, the golf course was tweaked in an effort to make things a bit more challenging.

In the 2026 edition, we will get a par 71 that measures just a shade less than 7,400 yards. Tom Weiskopf originally designed the property in 2004 but Wadkins has since narrowed the fairways, moved some of the bunkering, and renovated many of the greens — again, to try to adjust things to challenge the modern Tour player while still keeping this golf course playable for the club membership. In the five times that Craig Ranch has hosted this tournament, the average winning score is 25.5 under par. At the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, the Over/Under winning score proposition bet is 260.5, meaning 23.5 under par.

Even with the changes to the golf course, my approach to the handicap hasn’t changed. The formula remains the same: efficiency off the tee, greens in regulation, hole putts for birdie. Even though there have been some changes to these Bentgrass greens, I still believe that this will ultimately become a putting contest. Accordingly, I have looked at Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass), Birdies or Better Gained, Par 5 Scoring, Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards, and Par 4 Scoring on those measuring 450-500 yards.

I believe the correlated courses are fairly strong this week. In these watered-down field events, we tend to see the same names surface on the leaderboard. I looked at two other Weiskopf designs we see on Tour, TPC Scottsdale and Black Desert Resort in Utah. I also looked at Bay Hill (Arnold Palmer Invitational), Vidanta Vallarta (Mexico Open), and El Cardonal at Diamante (World Wide Technologies Championship).

I’m going with the long shot approach this week. Scheffler is a prohibitive favorite at around +185. Si Woo Kim and Jordan Spieth are the second choices at around 15-1. Brooks Koepka checks in around 25-1 and after that, there isn’t anything shorter than 40 or 50-1 — and that is where I will get started.

Stephan Jaeger (70-1)

Jaeger seems to fit the profile quite nicely this week. He’s a big hitter off the tee and has really turned into one of the game’s better putters. He’s won in the state of Texas previously (Houston Open), and he’s been a fixture on the leaderboards at many of the correlated courses with two top-6 finishes at Vidanta Vallarta, a runner-up and 11th-place finish in Utah, and an 11th and 20th-place finish here at TPC Craig Ranch. He caught my eye last week at the PGA Championship, where he finished 18th. He was third in that field for Greens in Regulation and ninth for SG: Putting — which was also a Bentgrass surface.

Matti Schmid (80-1)

Maybe it’s a German thing this week as both Schmid and Jaeger hail from Deutschland — and of course, Schmid was another who shined last week at Aronimink, finishing fourth. And what was a big part of his success? Yes, putting. Schmid was No. 1 in that field last week for SG: Putting. He was eighth last season at the World Wide Technologies Championship and finished fifth at Black Desert in 2024.

Jordan Smith (80-1)

Of all my selections this week, Smith is the only one who struggles with the putter, but I couldn’t ignore his ball striking numbers or his 16th-place finish earlier this season on another Weiskopf design, TPC Scottsdale. The Englishman is spending his first full season on the PGA Tour after being an exclusively European Tour player for many years. He currently ranks 21st on Tour for SG: Off The Tee, 34th for SG: Approach, and is 62nd in Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards. Over the last 24-rounds, he ranks 12th in this field on the Par 5s and is 15th in Hole Proximity from 200 yards or more.

Beau Hossler (90-1)

A University of Texas Longhorn, Hossler ought to feel very much at home this week and yes, he is an excellent putter, ranking fourth on Tour for SG: Putting. He finished third two weeks ago at Myrtle Beach, where he ranked third in that field for Greens in Regulation and seventh for SG: Off the Tee. Hossler is the king of the top 20-finish at the correlated courses having taken 17th here at Craig Ranch in the past, 10th at Vidanta Vallarta, 15th, 20th, and 17th at El Cardonal, 11th in Utah, two top 25s at Bay Hill, and a 14th-place finish at TPC Scottsdale in 2023.

Taylor Moore (125-1)

We’ve hit two recent winners at the Valspar Championship, Fitzpatrick earlier this season and Moore at 60-1 back in 2023. He really hasn’t done much since that lone Tour victory but he has shown some signs. He finished 17th two weeks ago in Myrtle Beach where he ranked ninth in that field for SG: Off the Tee and was 26th in SG: Approach, gaining nearly three shots on the field. And yes, the putter has come back around, ranking 33rd on Tour this season for SG: Putting. He is also one of the very best on the circuit for Hole Proximity between 175 and 225 yards. He finished ninth last year at TPC Scottsdale, hasn’t ever missed a cut at Bay Hill, and was runner-up earlier this season at the Cognizant Classic.

Hayden Springer (200-1)

Welcome to the 200-1 category. I believe this is our first venture into this territory in some time. Springer is a banger off the tee who can putt and that is a nice formula for TPC Craig Ranch. He also spent his college years at both Texas Tech and at TCU, so he is no stranger to this golf course or golf in this part of the world. He has spent most of his time this season on the Korn Ferry Tour, where he ranks fifth on that circuit for SG: Tee to Green and 11th for SG: Approach. Springer finished 20th last year at the Black Desert Championship.

Carson Young (225-1)

While we’re here in the 200-1 zip code, why not stick around for another minute? Shake hands with Mr. Carson Young, who like Springer, has split his time this season between the PGA and Korn Ferry Tours. On the KFT, Young has three top-7 finishes, including last week at the Colonial Life Charity Classic where he ranked 17th in that field for SG: Approach and was No. 1 in SG: Around the Green. On the Korn Ferry Tour this season, Young ranks No. 1 for SG: Tee to Green and for SG: Around the Green. He is sixth for Putting Average. Young has been at his best in these types of fields, at these types of golf courses, having finished 14th here in the past at Craig Ranch, eighth and 15th at Vidanta Vallarta, ninth, sixth, and runner-up at El Cardonal, and was 11th in Utah in 2024.