Let’s call it the “race back to relevancy”.
With cellar dwellers Richmond and Essendon facing off on Friday night, and similarly struggling Port Adelaide and Carlton doing battle 24 hours later, it is timely to check in on how the AFL’s rebuilding clubs are going.
For this exercise, we will also lump West Coast into this group, while considering Melbourne – in fifth place under new coach Steven King – and even North Melbourne as having graduated to the next stage.
The Roos finished 16th or worse in each of the past six seasons, but drafted seven times in the top four of the draft since 2020, albeit two of those players (Will Phillips and Jason Horne-Francis) are no longer on the list.
Alastair Clarkson’s team has won four of its 10 matches this year to be in 12th place, so there is still work to do, but there are enough signs that North are finally making inroads.
The Demons have made bulk first-round selections for years – and mostly drafted well – as they retool on the run after their 2021 premiership, and last year’s decisions to trade Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver and sack coach Simon Goodwin.
There is variance in the rebuilding phase for the Tigers, Bombers, Blues, Power and Eagles, given some are more advanced in that process, but how they landed here also differs.
The following order reflects which clubs we expect to move out of this territory the soonest, based on several factors, including age demographic, the quality of their young players and list overall, and performance.
When did the rebuild start?
West Coast are the deepest into their rebuilding journey after plummeting from ninth to 17th in 2022.
Like North Melbourne, the Eagles have finished no better than 16th since. Richmond were headed this way for a while after a golden era that produced three flags between 2017 and 2020, but their direction was clear once they traded Shai Bolton, Liam Baker and Daniel Rioli in 2024, on top of several retirements.
Essendon have not won a final since 2004, last qualified for September in 2021, and appointed Brad Scott as coach in late 2022, but have not plumbed the same depths as West Coast and the Tigers – at least until this year.
Port Adelaide, in Josh Carr’s first season in charge, and Carlton are different again. The Blues are looking for a new coach after parting ways with Michael Voss.
The Power ended the home-and-away season in second only two years ago, while Carlton made a preliminary final in 2023 and snuck into the finals a year later.
Who have the best kids?
On volume, West Coast and Richmond both have claims. We are giving the edge to the Eagles, thanks mostly to Harley Reid, Reuben Ginbey, Jobe Shanahan, Willem Duursma and Cooper Duff-Tytler. Elijah Hewett, Josh Lindsay, Bo Allan, Clay Hall and Hamish Davis are also promising.
The Tigers selected seven players in the top 30 of the 2024 draft, headlined by No.1 pick Sam Lalor, plus Josh Smillie, Taj Hotton, Jonty Faull, Luke Trainor, Harry Armstrong and Tom Sims. The positional variety is a positive, but one problem is several of that class had injury issues in juniors and have also missed time in the AFL.
Richmond chose Sam Cumming and Sam Grlj with top-10 selections last year, and they look shrewd picks.
Elijah Tsatas is Essendon’s sole top-five choice since Andy McGrath (2016) and Darcy Parish (2015), but they have had other top-10 picks who have not realised their potential. The consensus is the Bombers drafted well last year when they used first-round picks on Sullivan Robey, Jacob Farrow and Dyson Sharp, while Nate Caddy, Isaac Kako and Archie Roberts were sound selections, too.
Carlton have two blue-chip prospects in Jagga Smith and Harry Dean, while Harry O’Farrell looked good before suffering an ACL rupture last year – and they will match any bid on father-son prodigy Cody Walker in this year’s draft. But the jury is out on some of their other young players.
Port Adelaide did not make a single pick in last year’s draft after loading up in the mid-season edition, and have done a lot of their list building via trade. They picked twice in the first round in 2019, but only three times since: Lachie Jones (2020), Josh Sinn (2021) and Joe Berry (2024).
That said, the Power traded for the dux of the 2021 draft, Horne-Francis, and have the rights to this year’s No.1 pick-elect Dougie Cochrane, a richly talented hybrid forward-midfielder.
Who is at risk of losing stars?
Port Adelaide are sweating on the signature of their best player, Zak Butters, who is a restricted free agent this year and has a conga line of Victorian clubs lining up for him. Butters is expected to depart. Essendon effectively refused to trade Zach Merrett last year, but he is again weighing up his future despite being contracted until the end of 2027.
Carlton traded Charlie Curnow last year and lost Tom De Koning in free agency, while Richmond lost Baker, Rioli and Bolton two off-seasons ago and veteran defender Nathan Broad is likely to leave in free agency this year.
Ex-Eagle Oscar Allen defected to the Brisbane Lions last year, and there is constant conjecture about Reid’s future at West Coast, but he re-signed until the end of 2028. In fact, the Eagles loom as buyers after already trading for Brandon Starcevich last year. More West Australians will be on the agenda: Sydney’s Chad Warner, Port’s Mitch Georgiades and Demon Trent Rivers are projected to be free agents at the end of next year.
What about the rest of the list?
It is never just about the kids in a rebuild.
Port Adelaide have some anonymous names on paper, but have done well to find contributors on the fringes. Much will depend on Butters’ decision, as well as retaining players such as Miles Bergman, Georgiades and Kane Farrell, but they have only three players aged at least 30 since Ivan Soldo’s retirement. The likes of Connor Rozee, Horne-Francis and Jase Burgoyne are in their prime or entering it.
The draft has been West Coast’s focus, but they added the likes of Baker, Starcevich, Tylar Young, Jack Graham, and gave second chances to others, as part of their blueprint.
Ben McKay has not worked out for Essendon, who lack A-grade talent beyond Merrett. The Bombers’ next tier includes Nic Martin, Sam Durham, Andy McGrath, Mason Redman, Jordan Ridley, Kyle Langford, Jye Caldwell and Parish. All are capable, but none is a world-beater who can drag the team into contention.
Carlton have stars such as Patrick Cripps, Jacob Weitering, Sam Walsh and Harry McKay, plus a decent mid-tier of Adam Cerra, George Hewett, Zac Williams, Will Hayward, Ollie Florent and Ben Ainsworth. The best football should still be ahead for Ollie Hollands, Lachie Cowan, Ashton Moir and Jack Ison.
Premiership players Tom Lynch, Nick Vlastuin, Broad, Dion Prestia, Jayden Short, Noah Balta and Toby Nankervis remain on Richmond’s list, but only Balta is younger than 30. Ex-Giants Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper are also in their late 20s, so they need the likes of Jack Ross, Ben Miller, Rhyan Mansell and Hugo Ralphsmith to step up.
Who is performing best?
The Power are the highest on the ladder of the five clubs, with three wins from 10 matches, and a percentage north of 100, while West Coast – who lost to Richmond in Perth, and have suffered two 100-plus-point defeats – also have three victories.
Richmond and Essendon both have one win apiece, so the loser will pick first in next week’s mid-season draft, while Carlton was also stuck on one until saluting over Western Bulldogs in Josh Fraser’s first game as caretaker coach on Saturday night.
Who is leading the race?
1. West Coast: They are still inconsistent, but the kids are blossoming and a big leap is coming.
2. Carlton: This can be a quick fix, given the top-liners, experienced mid-tier group and increasing base of quality youth.
3. Port Adelaide: They might not have elite teenage talent, but there is upside in what is mostly a younger group with mid-20s top-liners.
4. Richmond: In Blair Hartley, we trust. There is no reason to doubt the Tigers in the long term, but fans might need to be patient.
5. Essendon: They’re playing catch-up after past draft misses, and departures, that left them short on stars, but they are getting back on track.
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