Daley has hung his game plan on one thing, and it’s a huge gamble

Asked how his NSW Blues will win tonight’s State of Origin opener at Accor Stadium, Laurie Daley’s answer was simple.

“We’re just going to defend our way to victory,” he said.

In reality, of course it won’t be that simple. But, after so many crushing defeats as a coach at this level, simplifying things seems to be Daley’s way of handling the enormous challenge ahead.

There’s no denying his record is poor.

He coached NSW for five series from 2013 to 2017 for one series win (2014) and was surprisingly resurrected for the 2025 series after Michael Maguire was appointed Broncos coach.

It was a job Maguire secured off the back of a series victory in 2024, snapping a Maroons dominance under Billy Slater.

In 2025, Daley had it all to lose. He was taking over a team which had won the year before.

During his five-year run from 2013, he had excuses as Queensland had a mighty team which strung together 11 of 12 series wins between 2006 and 2017.

This time though, it would be all on him and his good friend, NSWRL boss Dave Trodden, who brought Daley back from the coaching wilderness of breakfast sports radio.

The Blues came up short. After winning game one it all fell apart. There were odd selections and strange strategies and the Maroons did what they do so often. Backs-to-the-wall, they won games two and three.

When Queensland gets a sniff, they put you to the sword.

It left Daley’s record at seven wins and 11 losses overall and one series win from six attempts.

The forthrightness of his answer about how the Blues would win tonight with defence at least showed a confidence in his strategy.

The problem is, defence isn’t winning matches in 2026 in the NRL after the extension of the six again rule.

Previously, repeat sets of six were only awarded after the attacking team’s 40m line. Now they are awarded after the 20m line, and teams have pounced. There have been a record number of points, rapid momentum swings and record winning margins.

Defence-oriented teams, namely the Bulldogs and Storm, have slumped from the top four last season to 13th and 15th respectively as we approach the halfway point of the season.

Despite this, basing the bulk of your plan on defence isn’t necessarily a sure-fire bust as there are many variables.

First and foremost, how the game will be refereed.

NRL head of football Graham Annesley told this masthead on the weekend it would be officiated the same way as club football.

In other words, Origin won’t be refereed differently, and he scoffed at suggestions it has been in the past.

Which is incorrect. It most definitely has been refereed differently in the past and everyone knows that.

Daley needs it to be refereed differently – less penalties and set restarts – for his defence strategy to work.

He has no inside knowledge that it will be different – it’s a gamble.

Asked if he’d had a pre-match meeting with Annesley and referee Ash Klein, he said with an ironic laugh and more than a hint of disdain: “No. I’ve been down that road.”

In other words, Daley’s had pre-match meetings before and found them worthless because what he was told in the meetings didn’t eventuate.

Then there is the weather. It will be wet. The Accor Stadium surface will hold up, all modern grounds do, but it will be slippery and holding on to the ball will be all important.

The cornerstone of victory in the modern game are completed sets of six. The cornerstone of losses are dropped ball and giving away sets of six.

Of vital importance will be the forwards in the tough conditions.

Daley, interestingly, has gone for a more mobile six-man bench, with Jacob Saifiti the only “big bopper”.

Queensland has Lindsay Collins and Patrick Carrigan on the bench. They would love it to be a slugfest.

Key for the Blues will be the starting back row of skipper Isaah Yeo, Hudson Young and Haumole Olakau’atu.

It looks stronger on paper than the Maroons’ trio of debutant Max Plath and the tried and tested Kurt Capewell and Reuben Cotter.

Paper though can be worthless in Origin. Time and again stronger teams on paper have been rolled – except for the golden Queensland era.

Daley’s long-term fate as a coach isn’t hanging on a win or a loss in this series.

He’s in year two of a two-year deal and he has a life and a job he’s good at away from coaching, which is a glorified hobby.

Ivan Cleary finishes at the Panthers at the end of 2027. He wants to coach at representative level. He must be the NSW coach in 2028. If he’s not, then the NSWRL board has got it all wrong. Maybe not for the first time.

A win in this series and Daley might be asked to warm the seat for Cleary. A loss and he’s gone.