U.S. Open early betting guide: 4 picks our expert loves

Welcome to our PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow him on X at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his early picks below for the U.S. Open, which gets underway on June 18 at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club on Long Island.

We are two weeks away from the fourth time we have seen the U.S. Open Championship at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, N.Y., in the past 31 years. It will be the sixth time Shinnecock has hosted the men’s championship overall. We were last here in 2018, when Brooks Koepka won with a score of one-over par for the championship.

Koepka figures to be a factor, looking to capture his third career U.S. Open title as he continues his move back to the PGA Tour after a stint on the LIV circuit. J.J. Spaun is your defending champion, winning his first-ever major championship last summer at Oakmont. It may be world No. 1 Scottie Scheffer, however, who arrives with the most fanfare as he looks to become the seventh player ever in golf history to win the career grand slam. Only the U.S. Open is missing from his major championship trophy case. Scheffler is the heavy favorite at roughly +450. His past five U.S. Open finishes have been 7-41-3-2-7.

In 2018, Shinnecock played as a par 70 measuring a little better than 7,400 yards. It appears the set-up in 2026 will be very similar in length. Scheffler and Rory McIlroy have both gotten in an early practice round on the course and both players spoke about how the fairways were surprisingly a bit wide. McIlroy expressed how the landing areas were more generous than they were in 2018, but both players also said how penal the rough is if a fairway is missed. McIlroy said the first cut is probably five inches thick and about three paces wide. After that, it is wispy heather and tall fescue, much like an Open Championship venue. Scheffler said once you start missing fairways, you have no chance.

Located on the South Fork of Long Island, the wind off both the bay and the Atlantic Ocean have long been a defense of Shinnecock and the similarities to an Open Championship test are real. As to what a winning-score prop might be? While the numbers are still yet to be posted, golf oddsmaker Jeff Sherman at Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook said: “Without looking at anything, I’d guess 2.5- to 4.5-under par.”

Driving accuracy will still be a priority. Iron play and touch around the greens will be a must. Scheffler spoke about how tough the greens are — undulated, fast, firm, and as the wind continues to dry them out, they will become even tougher to negotiate as the championship rolls on. The green surfaces are primarily poa annua with a bit of bentgrass blended in. This is very similar to what we see on the West Coast, at Torrey Pines, Pebble Beach and Riviera.

I began my 2026 U.S. Open research about one month ago and I have come up with six courses we have seen recently or do see regularly, as possible comps. I mentioned the Open Championship connection. Royal Birkdale (2017 Open Championship), Royal St. George’s (2021 Open Championship) and Royal Troon (2024 Open Championship) make sense to me, as do Southern Hills (2022 PGA Championship) and Pinehurst No. 2 (2024 U.S. Open). Finally, the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook (Valspar Championship) looks to have some connective tissue with Shinnecock, not necessarily in style but in skill sets required for success.

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Early bets 

Tommy Fleetwood (25-1)

On May 17, I made my first U.S. Open play to win the championship outright. Fleetwood was listed at 20-1 just about everywhere and I didn’t love that number. I saw 25 pop up and jumped on it. As it stands currently, 28-1 or 30-1 appears readily available. Fleetwood shot a course-record 63 on Sunday in 2018 to nearly catch Koepka, ultimately coming up one shot short. One can argue that the U.S. Open has been Fleetwood’s best major, with three top-five finishes and a 16th place-finish at Pinehurst in 2024. The Englishman has also been 16th twice and third once at the Valspar Championship. He was fifth at Southern Hills in 2022. Fleetwood ranks ninth on Tour in driving accuracy, 56th in SG: Approach, and sixth in SG: Around the Green. If the similar putting surface turf means anything — and it does — Fleetwood was fourth this year at Pebble Beach and seventh at Riviera.

Matt Fitzpatrick (25-1)

Four days after making a play on Fleetwood, I added another Englishman to the card. Fitzpatrick has won three times already this season, including the Valspar Championship, and won the U.S. Open in 2022. Like Fleetwood, he, too, finished fifth at Southern Hills in 2022. He currently ranks fourth on Tour in SG: Approach, eighth for SG: Around the Green, seventh for Greens in Regulation, and sixth in driving accuracy. Fitzpatrick finished 12th at Shinnecock in 2018.

Xander Schauffele (20-1)

Schauffele won two majors in 2024 — the PGA Championship and the Open Championship (at Royal Troon, by the way) — but like Fleetwood, his most successful major throughout his career may also be the U.S. Open. He was sixth at Shinnecock in 2018. He’s played in the national championship nine times and hasn’t ever missed the cut. His worst finish is 14th, and he’s been top 10 seven times. He was seventh at Pinehurst in 2024 and 13th at Southern Hills in 2022, and has gone 12-5-12-4 in four consecutive visits to the Valspar Championship. Schauffele ranks 18th on Tour in total driving, 29th for SG: Approach, 28th in SG: Putting, and 11th in scrambling.

Daniel Berger (180-1)

Time for a long bomb. I have seen anywhere from 100-1 to as high as 200-1 on Berger to win the 2026 U.S. Open. He was sixth at Shinnecock in 2018 and was seventh at Torrey Pines (poa annua greens) at the 2021 U.S. Open. Speaking of poa annua, Berger also has a win at Pebble Beach. We noted in our preview of the Charles Schwab Challenge last week that Colonial Country Club can be a good indicator of possible U.S. Open success, and Berger has won at Colonial. He has finished as high as 11th at the Valspar and was eighth at Royal St. George’s in 2021. Berger ranks 10th for SG: Approach this season and 45th in driving accuracy. It feels like a pretty darn good resume for a player in the neighborhood of 200-1.

We’ll be back on June 16th for our complete outright card for the 126th U.S. Open Championship and the third major of 2026.