Renegade did not win the Kentucky Derby, but his second-place finish on the First Saturday in May only strengthened his reputation as the best 3-year-old in the sport.
Drawn into the dreaded No. 1 post, Renegade was quickly squeezed toward the back of the pack at Churchill Downs and had to make up a ton of ground to even contend for a spot on the podium.
Few, if any, horses have the toolkit and mentality to make up 12 lengths in any race, but to do so in the Kentucky Derby, where there is chaos everywhere, is an incredible accomplishment, even if Renegade lost by a neck to Golden Tempo.
If Renegade had a bit more runway, or wasn’t forced to go as wide on the turn from home, he would have won the Derby and would be even shorter than the 2-1 price he was tagged with on the morning line for the Belmont Stakes.
If betting were straightforward — just pick the winner without worrying about odds — this would be an easy puzzle to solve. Renegade is the best horse in this field, and he’s the likeliest to cross the finish line first, so you’d just select him and be done with it.
But that’s not how this game works.
Price trumps everything in betting, and you have to take into account Renegade’s extremely short price, which could get even shorter as we approach post time Saturday evening in Saratoga.
Consider this: Renegade was a lukewarm 5-1 favorite on the morning line for the Kentucky Derby. Whether because of his post position or because other horses were more trendy, Mike Repole’s contender wasn’t all that popular (at least relative to most morning-line favorites) at the betting window.
One month later, Renegade’s price has been slashed by 60 percent, despite going up against another elite field. Chief Wallabee, Commandment and Emerging Market were all 8/1 or shorter at the Derby, and Golden Tempo won the race. All of them are in this field.
Renegade is the horse to beat. But his price is so unappealing, and is likely to get worse, that you’re going to have to try.
So, which horse has what it takes to upset the headliner?
No. 3 Chief Wallabee was the wise-guy choice at Churchill and will be popular again after a game fourth-place finish at the Derby, but his price got significantly chopped.
No. 7 Commandment was essentially a co-favorite in the first leg of the Triple Crown, but he was a bit flat at Churchill Downs. We’ll pass.
And then there’s No. 9 Golden Tempo.
We had him pegged as one of our long-shot picks in the Derby, but that was because the conditions of that race played into his style. He’s a late closer, got a hot pace to run into and was able to pass the entire field of horses who were tired from bumping and jostling all race.
We are not likely to get a similar setup, and I would advise tossing the Derby Winner from your tickets.
That brings us to No. 8 Emerging Market.
He’s got great connections with trainer Chad Brown and jockey Flavien Prat, plus his price is already appealing at 6-1. Even better news is that, as money pours in on Renegade, Golden Tempo and Chief Wallabee, we could see Emerging Market’s number drift into a really tempting range.
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Not many punters will be keen on betting the 10th-place finisher at the Derby, ignoring the fact that he lost a shoe during the race.
That isn’t to say he would have won the race with better fortune, but it is enough to excuse his performance, which, on paper, looks like a step back from his win at the Louisiana Derby in his second career race. That performance was impressive enough to make Emerging Market one of the projected contenders in the Derby field.
Renegade may tick the most boxes in this field, but Emerging Market ticks the most important one, which is his price.
The Play: Emerging Market (6-1) to win the Belmont Stakes
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: nypost.com
