TEHRAN – Convinced that it has already defeated both the world’s foremost military power and its Israeli ally, the Islamic Republic of Iran is likely to emerge from its confrontation with Trump in a position of overwhelming regional dominance, argues former French minister and international politics expert Pierre Lellouche.
The following is an excerpt of his op-ed published in Le Figaro:
Trump began the war by promising Iran’s “unconditional surrender.” He is ending it with a flawed agreement, whose consequences the West has yet to fully reckon with. In reality, this war has become a strategic nightmare for the Trump administration—a nightmare reminiscent of the darkest days of the Carter presidency, when Jimmy Carter failed disastrously to secure the release of the American hostages held at the U.S. embassy in Tehran for 444 days 45 years ago.
After three and a half months of conflict, it is clear that none of the war’s three principal objectives has been achieved: neither the dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program, nor the destruction of its missile arsenal, nor the cessation of support for Hezbollah and other allies. More significantly, the Islamic Republic emerges from the conflict strengthened, more determined than ever to seek retribution, and convinced that it has already defeated both the world’s strongest military power and its Israeli ally.
On the nuclear issue, the ostensible centerpiece of the war, Iran has maintained its longstanding position: the assertion of its sovereign right to enrich uranium. This stance allows Tehran to preserve the scientific and technical expertise even if enrichment activities are temporarily suspended. In essence, the arrangement bears a striking resemblance to the JCPOA agreement concluded by Obama in 2015—an accord Trump famously denounced as “terrible” before withdrawing from it three years later during his first term.
Moreover, new nuclear negotiations are likely to drag on for months due to their extreme technical complexity.
Yet the most consequential issue concerns the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran had been seeking to establish de facto control over the entire strait. That objective has now been achieved, with far-reaching consequences.
The first is that Iran intends to exact a steep price for reopening the strait, reportedly demanding the release of $24 billion in Iranian funds frozen in Arab and Western banks, to be paid in two installments. For comparison, the 2015 agreement concluded by Obama reportedly involved only $1.7 billion. By that measure, Trump has delivered remarkable “progress.” Combined with renewed oil exports, these funds would provide Tehran with the liquidity necessary to alleviate its severe economic crisis and rebuild its military capabilities.
It would be naïve to assume that Tehran will voluntarily relinquish such a powerful strategic asset. Iranian leaders have discovered that control over Hormuz enables them, at any moment, to hold the global economy hostage. The reason is straightforward: the world cannot sustainably function without access to roughly a quarter of the energy it consumes each day.
Consequently, once an agreement is reached, Iran could close the strait again. The mere threat of such action would constitute a formidable deterrent against any future American or allied military intervention. The Strait of Hormuz has therefore become, simultaneously, the Islamic Republic’s cornucopia, the equivalent of a second nuclear deterrent against external interference in the region.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: tehrantimes.com
