No war, no peace – just Hormuz holding the world hostage

Recently, US President Donald Trump said he is satisfied with the situation regarding the Strait of Hormuz and the progress in negotiations with Iran. US Vice President J.D. Vance expressed similar sentiments earlier, noting that they succeeded in creating a mechanism to prevent further escalation between Israel, Lebanon, and Hezbollah, and laid the foundation for a future peace agreement during the talks in Switzerland. 

At first glance, this looks like a diplomatic breakthrough, but the reality is more complex. The Trump administration’s optimistic rhetoric doesn’t change the fact that the negotiation process remains highly volatile, and trust between the parties is minimal or even nonexistent. Moreover, while Vance led the negotiations in Switzerland, Trump, in his characteristic manner, once again lashed out at Iran, effectively jeopardizing the efforts of his own negotiating team. As a result, the Iranian side has temporarily withdrawn from the negotiations, although the Trump administration is trying to downplay this episode.

Nevertheless, it’s premature to say the negotiations have failed. Subsequent statements by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi demonstrated that despite its irritation, Tehran is not interested in immediately disrupting the negotiation process. On the contrary, the Iranian side continues to leave room for diplomacy, while demonstrating that it is not prepared to make concessions under pressure and public threats.

Currently, a temporary negotiation framework is in effect – a sort of memorandum that could remain valid for another 50-60 days. This is not a full-fledged agreement, but merely a pause that each side is using to its own advantage. For the US, this is an opportunity to demonstrate that the crisis is manageable and to reduce risks regarding the Strait of Hormuz and the Lebanese front. For Iran, it is a way to buy time, reduce sanctions pressure, restore diplomatic maneuverability, and test the extent to which Washington is truly capable of controlling its own rhetoric and the actions of its allies.