And then there were four.
After starting with an expanded field of 48 teams, it is not surprising that the proverbial co-favorites, France and Spain, have reached the World Cup semifinals.
The only shame is that this is the game before the final, but nonetheless, the UEFA League powerhouses are well acquainted with one another.
On one side, we have Kylian Mbappé and Les Bleus, who have revenge on their minds after losing to Argentina in the Qatar 2022 final.
For La Roja, it’s the story of the teenage sensation, Lamine Yamal, who at 19 has already put his name into grand conversations due to exceptional twitch and one-on-one ability in space.
The stage is set for what should be an incredible matchup, as France enters as slight favorites at +130 on the moneyline, with odds of +210 for a draw and +225 for Spain to win within 90 minutes.
France vs. Spain World Cup prediction, best bets
Didier Deschamps and the French squad must contend with a Spanish defense that stands as the tournament’s finest, having surrendered just a single goal through six matches.
The trio of Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele, and Michael Olise powers a lethal French front line that has generated a tournament-high 14.6 expected goals, per FotMob. The captain has been off the charts, scoring his eighth goal against Morocco, tying him with Lionel Messi in the Golden Boot race.
France has the tools to break down Spain, but La Roja’s ability to control possession will be vital.
While his scoring output remains modest, Yamal’s relentless work rate and tactical gifts are the engine behind a methodical Spanish offense that boasts a tournament-leading 66 percent possession average.
Their 226 touches in the opposition’s box are also the most of any team in the tournament. It also helps that super sub Mikel Moreno has been timely in two straight matches, nailing game-clinchers that helped Spain defeat Portugal and Belgium.
While the French have looked nearly invincible, I anticipate La Roja will dictate the tempo through possession and maintain the defensive resolve that has defined their tournament run.
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It’s hard to bet against this version of Mbappe, but unlike Morocco and Paraguay, Spain has position players who can make things uncomfortable and test France’s back line.
They have also beaten Les Bleus in their last two head-to-head matchups, including a 5-4 thriller in the 2025 UEFA Nations League semifinal.
It will be a chess match for the ages between Deschamps and Alexis De la Fuente, but I’m willing to take a swing at Spain to emerge victorious at plus money.
The Play: Spain to advance (+120, BetMGM Sportsbook)
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Mike Turay is a sports journalist and editor who closely follows the NBA, NFL, college sports and UFC. He has demonstrated expertise in both NBA and NFL player prop bets for nearly three years. Mike is also highly knowledgeable about the sportsbook offer landscape, frequently trying and reviewing the latest apps and sites.
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