The Victorian Labor premier, Jacinta Allan, is expected to face a leadership challenge when state parliament resumes this week.
Just four months out from a state election, factional conveners from Labor’s left and right met on Sunday night to discuss whether Allan still had the support of a majority of the caucus. It is understood the group agreed she did not.
But the pathway to a challenge remains unclear, as Allan’s most likely opponent – the deputy premier, Ben Carroll – has indicated to colleagues he would only run for the leadership if the position was vacant.
One option being floated by the factions on Sunday was for a group of ministers to approach Allan on Monday ahead of a planned cabinet meeting to inform her she had lost the support of her colleagues.
It was their hope that she would stand down ahead of a vote during Tuesday’s caucus meeting, the first day of parliament following the winter break.
However, if Allan contested a leadership ballot, the entire Victorian Labor membership would also get a vote in a weeks-long process, thanks to rule changes introduced following the instability of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd era. The rules have been untested at a state level.
One minister close to Allan maintained she was “not going anywhere” and described the leaking of the meeting as an attempt to build momentum for a spill.
The attorney general, Sonya Kilkenny, a key supporter of the premier, said leadership speculation was “idle gossip” earlier on Sunday.
“She has my full support, and this idle gossip doesn’t help Victorians,” Kilkenny said. “It is only hurting Victorians at a time when Victorians need us all to be focused on them, and that is exactly what Jacinta Allan and our Labor government, our team, is doing.”
Allan became premier following the resignation of Daniel Andrews in September 2023.
Momentum had been building for a leadership spill before parliament rose for a winter break in June due to poor polling and Allan’s weak personal approval ratings ratings, rising support for One Nation and concerns over her response to organised crime infiltrating the state’s Big Build, via the construction union.
Allan, who previously served as the minister for transport infrastructure overseeing the Big Build, has rejected growing calls for a royal commission.
But Carroll ruled out a challenge at the time, at an awkward press conference where he looked Allan in the eye and declared he would not challenge her for the leadership.
At the same 15 June press conference, he told reporters: “I’ve got a young daughter at home, and I couldn’t be more proud to make sure she grows up knowing that I supported Jacinta Allan to be a world-class premier and get re-elected in her own right.”
It is understood Carroll, if elected leader, would immediately call for a royal commission, work to resolve the pay dispute between the state government and public school teachers and improve the party’s economic credentials and standing with the business community.
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