Ostracised since 2021, Myanmar’s generals are finding a warm embrace among neighbours

Singapore: After more than five years of civil war, Myanmar’s oppressive regime is accomplishing some of its most important victories. And they are not on the battlefield.

Leader Min Aung Hlaing’s state visit this week to Thailand – where he was met with red carpets, military bands and a smiling prime minister – crosses a major milestone in his quest for legitimacy, even as his nation’s military continues its atrocities at home.

Ostracised and variously sanctioned since the 2021 coup that ousted the popularly elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar’s generals-turned-politicians are increasingly finding a regional embrace. This is horrifying for the ethnic armies and pro-democracy forces in Myanmar fighting to reclaim their country.

“We ask countries to think very carefully about whether they show support to the State Administration Council,” spokesman for the ethnic Karen National Union, Padoh Kler Say, said recently, referring to the military junta.

“If the international community recognises Min Aung Hlaing as the legitimate government and leader, it would have a huge impact on the country, especially the civilians. As you know, even right now, he is violating human rights.”

The visit to Thailand is Min Aung Hlaing’s fourth overseas trip since he swapped the title of senior general for president in April after faux elections that excluded any meaningful opposition. India, China and landlocked minnow, Laos, were the first three.

China, in particular, has much to gain from a stable power in Myanmar because it has long coveted direct access to the Indian Ocean. The mooted China-Myanmar Economic Corridor promises to make this happen. India, too, shares a border with Myanmar and wants to keep its rulers close for various reasons, including as a check on Chinese influence.

But the latest visit is significant because Thailand is a major power within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, a regional bloc that has forbidden Myanmar’s participation since the coup. To be brought back into the fold, Min Aung Hlaing was supposed to meet various conditions he ostensibly agreed to under the so-called Five-Point Consensus (5PC), the most important of these being an immediate cessation of violence.

However, as much as ASEAN likes talking about the 5PC, Min Aung Hlaing ignores it: since it was signed in 2021, an estimated 100,000 people have died in fighting on both sides of Myanmar’s civil war – about a fifth of them in military attacks on civilians in resistance areas. This includes airstrikes on schools, hospitals, places of worship, weddings and festivals.

In its actions this week, Thailand is saying to hell with the 5PC. The war is dragging on, and there remains a troubled border through which trade and deals can be had.

After significant losses, Myanmar’s military has taken ground back from resistance forces, which are essentially alone in the world. The United States isn’t coming to help, and the United Nations only makes sternly worded statements. The regime, on the other hand, has the backing of China, which, along with Russia, sells the jets that give it dominance of the skies.

Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul calls his country’s folding “calibrated re-engagement”.

The regime was doing some careful calibration of its own before the visit, releasing long-awaited proof-of-life photos of Suu Kyi, who has been detained since the coup, meeting with an International Committee of the Red Cross representative.

The thinking presumably went that by showing Suu Kyi alive and being tended to might shield brand Thailand from the worst of the regime’s stench.

There is an argument that progress towards peace is easier with Min Aung Hlaing and the generals inside the ASEAN tent. But a joint statement from Myanmar and Thailand on Thursday made no mention of the regime stopping, or even considering stopping, violence against civilians, let alone against resistance groups.

Instead, the leaders spoke about space tech, trade, the environment, an additional Bangkok-Yangon flight, and their “robust and longstanding partnership”.

“Prime Minister Anutin should be ashamed to host Min Aung Hlaing, a murderous Myanmar military officer with the blood of countless Burmese on his hands,” Phil Robertson, the director of Asia Human Rights and Labour Advocates, said in a statement.

“The deaths of thousands, displacement and untold suffering of millions, and destruction of Myanmar’s economy can all be laid at Min Aung Hlaing’s feet. The rigged, illegitimate ‘election’ that he presided over ruined any hope of a restoration of democracy in the country.”

Thailand’s position is hardly shared by all ASEAN states. And in the Anglosphere and Europe, nations such as Australia still occasionally cluck their tongues at Myanmar when they deign to look in that direction.

But cracks are opening up in the international community, and like water, the generals are settling in.

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