There is growing concern in Lubbock, Texas.
After qualifying for the College Football Playoff as the No. 4 seed in 2025, Texas Tech was priced as the clear favorite to win the Big 12 and get back into the dance this season.
The Red Raiders are 2-0 to start the campaign, but neither win will be hung up at the Buddy Holly Center.
Texas Tech was pedestrian in a 33-10 win over FCS Abilene Christian in Week 1, and then was pushed to the brink by Oregon State the following Saturday.
Joey McGuire’s Red Raiders will need to be much sharper against No. 22 Houston on Friday.
Houston vs. Texas Tech odds, pick
There was a lot to love about Texas Tech coming into the new campaign.
The Red Raiders lost some game-breakers on both sides of the ball to the NFL Draft, but McGuire reloaded the roster and looked primed to build on the momentum built last fall.
There was just one problem: The quarterback that McGuire recruited, Brendan Sorsby, was ruled ineligible for gambling violations. That left Will Hammond, who missed most of last season with a torn ACL, as the starter for the Red Raiders.
On paper, the early returns for Hammond have been OK, but when you factor the quality of competition they look less glossy.
Hammond and the Red Raiders will get a real test against the Cougars.
Willie Fritz’s first two years in Houston have been terrific.
The veteran head coach has won two national titles at the JUCO level, led Sam Houston State to a pair of FCS title games and then parlayed a successful stint at Georgia Southern into a gig at Tulane, where he turned the Green Wave into one of the model programs in the Group of 6.
Fritz’s first year in Houston featured growing pains en route to a 4-8 record, but the Cougars won 10 times last year and look poised to be even better in 2026.
Conner Weigman returns at quarterback after accounting for 35 total touchdowns last year, and he’s got plenty of weapons back in the fold around him. The offensive line looks improved thanks to some shrewd additions in the portal, and Austin Armstrong’s defense could be a real chore to deal with in the trenches.
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That could be a real issue for Hammond, who isn’t fleet of foot.
Houston’s Week 1 showing against Oregon State also left something to be desired, but the Cougars decimated Southern University last weekend to get on track.
With the better quarterback and a defense that has some serious teeth, the Cougars could pull off the upset under the lights in Lubbock.
The Play: Houston moneyline (+235, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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