In the face of it, the call for the two by-elections to the Madurantakam and Dharapuram Assembly constituencies on October 6 is just a routine exercise aimed at filling two of the seven vacancies in the legislature caused by resignations of members elected to the House in May. But the fact that the polls have generated so much interest in political circles with all top leaders girding up their loins to jump into the campaign trail points to a slew of factors that give significance to the exercise. Of course, there have been many by-elections in the past that had raised interest among the people, both at the State and national levels. Say the Andipatti by-election of 2002, whose results were awaited with bated breath since J Jayalalithaa would ascend the Chief Minister’s throne if she won it – of course, she did it.
Another by-election that evoked interest at not just the national level but at the international level was the 1978 Lok Sabha by-election to the Chikmagalur constituency. It marked Indira Gandhi regaining her political importance after her crushing defeat in the general elections that led to her defeat and the debacle of the Congress after the Emergency. Subsequently she returned to power and reigned over India. Going by those standards, neither Madurantakam nor Dharapuram should come anywhere close to getting the importance they are now getting. No well- known leader is contesting now. Yet if all top political head honchos in the State are planning to visit the two constituencies to campaign for their candidates, it is just the sign of the changing times.
One reason for all political parties gearing up to put up a strong fight is that the two constituencies – Madurantakam in Chengalpattu district coming under the Kanchipuram Lok Sabha seat and Dharapuram in Tiruppur district but falling under the Erode Lok Sabha constituency – are not pocket boroughs of any political party. Even the two candidates who caused the by-election by resigning their posts won on AIADMK tickets and now contest as TVK candidates do not seem to enjoy any apparent personal popularity among the people. Whatever drove them to take the risky decision of giving up the MLA seat and giving another shot at the election from the same constituency under a different banner, they will know if it was a right decision or not only after October 6.
But the elections have become important for their present and past political bosses as they would be making a point by winning them. So, both Edappadi K Palaniswami, the general secretary of the AIADMK who could not stop K Maragatham Kumaravel and P Sathyabhama from falling for the lure of the ruling TVK, and C Joseph Vijay whose party has now fielded them in Madurantakam and Dharapuram respectively are vigorously involved in the election work. While Palaniswami is keen on defeating the two women in the elections and establishing that his party has a strong voter base in the two constituencies, Vijay is out to establish that the two candidates are the favourites of the voters and hence have shifted to his party.
So far it is all fine as the aspirations of the two top honchos are understandable. But the DMK vowing to win the seats and the combined Left parties telling the people that they are the real alternatives to really uplift their lives may sound somewhat bombastic. But then, the Left leaders feel that since the voters will be confused by the AIADMK and TVK campaigns – one calling those candidates as traitors who betrayed their party and the other calling the DMK as corrupt and betraying the people – they could be seen as a viable alternative. It is in that chaotic, troubled water that the Naam Tamilar Katchi would like to fish in, which the party head honcho Seeman has been trying to do in the past several elections by presenting him as the alternative to the DMK and AIADMK.
However, the first by-election under the new regime will be seen as a test of the government’s and the party’s acceptability, at least among the people of those two constituencies. So their assessment of the new government and its functioning in the last 133 days will find reflection in the results of the by-elections. If they are happy with the new government, they will vote for TVK candidates unmindful of the fact that they had defected from the AIADMK after getting their mandate in May. If the people feel that they had voted for the return of the AIADMK in May but the candidates had betrayed their interest, they may choose the AIADMK. In the event of them seeing both the AIADMK and the two TVK candidates as unreliable, they may go for the DMK. In the event of the people getting disillusioned over the political developments by seeing it all as a farce and view the parties and candidates as entities lacking in honesty, they may vote for the Left parties or the NTK.
For the parties, however, it is a different ball game. If the TVK wins the two seats, it will be seen as the beginning of a chain of victories in the next five by-elections and beyond. If the ruling TVK fails to clinch the two seats, the opposition parties, particularly the DMK and AIADMK, will see a ray of hope at the end of the tunnel.
Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: deccanchronicle.com
