It should be no surprise that North Dakota State’s transition from the FCS to the FBS has been as smooth as you’d like.
The most successful program in FCS history has won its first three games at the FBS level, including a blowout win over Jacksonville State and a one-score victory over Air Force.
The Bison will now travel to Hornet Stadium to take on Sacramento State, the only other school that jumped from FCS to FBS for this season, in a late-night contest being broadcast on ESPN.
You’d think that two schools making the jump in the same year would be projected to be a tight contest, but the odds suggest otherwise. North Dakota State is laying 27.5 points on the road.
NDSU vs. Sacramento State odds, picks
While the Bison have passed their first three tests this season with flying colors, it’s been a different story for Sacramento State.
The Hornets lost their first game in the MAC (yes, they’re in the MAC) to Eastern Michigan by 11 points, then crushed Mississippi Valley State before getting the tables turned on them in a 49-3 defeat to Fresno State. Those results are not atypical from a team leaping from FCS to FBS, but the problem is that they’re going up against a very different beast on Saturday.
While Sacramento State is essentially starting over and getting its bearings under first-year head coach Alonzo Carter, North Dakota State is a machine. They probably could have made the leap years ago, but the stars didn’t align until this season.
The Bison offense has found plenty of success out of the gate, and I have no doubt that they’ll be able to have a field day against Sacramento State.
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The Hornets have allowed an average of 6.7 yards per play to start the campaign, and Fresno shredded them for 542 total yards. According to SP+, the Bulldogs boast the 121st best offense in the country, so imagine what North Dakota State (63rd) can do.
North Dakota State’s defensive numbers aren’t eye-popping, but you can excuse the Bison for struggling a bit against Air Force’s triple-option. That’s an outlier performance against a unique offensive scheme. They looked much more formidable against Jacksonville State and Fordham.
The Bison have sent a statement to the Group of 6 that they’re a legitimate threat in these waters, and I don’t suspect they’ll pass up the opportunity to further that narrative on ESPN on Saturday night.
The Play: North Dakota State -27.5 (-115, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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