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With Nick Daicos expected to not only romp to a massive Brownlow Medal win but have it secured by as early as the round 19 votes are read out, tipsters are having to get more creative than normal.
Perennial contender Marcus Bontempelli and Geelong star Bailey Smith are favoured to fill the podium spots – but comfortably behind Daicos. Beyond those three, trying to identify a “surprise packet” is the next task.
Our footy scribes and experts have had a crack, and the predictions are varied. Melbourne ruckman Max Gawn is one favoured name, but otherwise it’s a lottery. Think Hawk Jai Newcombe, Gawn’s teammate Kysaiah Pickett, Izak Rankine, Tim Taranto and Ollie Dempsey. Yes, even Dempsey and Taranto. No-one has lobbed for star Saint Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, even though The Age’s Phantom Brownlow (see below for the leaderboard) has NAS polling nine best-on-grounds from just 17 games.
What our experts say
Jake Niall
1. Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
2. Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
3. Luke Jackson (Fremantle)
Surprise packet, and why: Jai Newcombe. The Hawthorn midfielder and co-captain stood out in a team that made the top four.
Caroline Wilson
1. Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
2. Bailey Smith (Geelong)
3. Caleb Serong (Fremantle)
Surprise packet: Luke Jackson deserves to be up there and a surprise only because he would be the first genuine ruckman since Jim Stynes last century to win it.
Jimmy Bartel
1. Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
2. Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
3. Bailey Smith (Geelong)
Surprise packet: Will Ashcroft is a dominant, goal-kicking midfielder and has been a key driver of Brisbane’s run home.
Libby Birch
1.Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
2. Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions)
3. Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
Surprise packet: Luke Jackson. His athleticism and versatility make him one of the most dominant players in the competition, but it is his ability to influence games as both a ruckman and an extra midfielder that has really stood out this season.
Wayne Campbell
1. Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
2. Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
3. Jai Newcombe (Hawthorn)
Surprise packet: Tim Taranto. His team only got three wins, which means it’s hard to see him polling enough threes to challenge, but Tim Taranto is always under the eye of the umpires and was a standout for his team.
Michael Gleeson
1. Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
2. Patrick Cripps (Carlton)
3. Max Gawn (Melbourne
Surprise packet: Caleb Serong. As a midfielder for the minor premiers he’ll poll well.
Sam McClure
1. Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
2. Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
3. Bailey Smith (Geelong)
Surprise packet: Isaac Heeney will poll more votes than you expect him to. And more than the AFL would like.
Calum Jaspan
1. Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
2. Bailey Smith (Geelong)
3. Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
Surprise packet: Ollie Dempsey. An absolute livewire all season for Geelong. One of the cats’ most consistent stars. Has flashy moments the umpires will remember.
Emma Kearney
1. Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
2. Bailey Smith (Geelong)
3. Jai Newcombe (Hawthorn)
Surprise packet: Will Ashcroft. He’s been the dominant mid for Brisbane all year. Snubbed by the all Australian panel, but key stats indicating he is in the elite bracket of the competition.
Hannah Kennelly
1.Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
2. Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
3. Bailey Smith (Geelong)
Surprise packet: Will Ashcroft. He missed out on All-Australian, but don’t be surprised if you see Ashcroft in the top five. The dual Norm Smith medallist has had a strong season again, but might face some stiff competition from teammate Lachie Neale.
Marc McGowan
1. Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
2. Bailey Smith (Geelong)
3. Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
Surprise packet: Kysaiah Pickett has never polled more than 10 votes, but has an eye-catching style and had some monstrous performances in Demons wins during a career-best season.
Jon Pierik
1. Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
2. Bailey Smith (Geelong)
3. Patrick Cripps (Carlton)
Surprise packet: Max Gawn is a rank outsider with the bookies, but the Melbourne captain had arguably his finest year yet. It’s been 34 years since the last pure ruckman took home ‘Charlie’. It’s time for that to change.
Danny Russell
1. Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
2. Bailey Smith (Geelong)
3. Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
Surprise packet: Max Gawn landed 23 votes last year after playing in seven winning games. This year he sang the Dees song 15 times. He had more kicks, more handballs, and more hitouts, but took fewer marks.
Peter Ryan
1. Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
2. Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
3. Luke Jackson (Fremantle)
Surprise packet: Jai Newcombe. In an even team that wins plenty of games, Newcombe stands out and sits right under the umpires’ eyes. As a Hawk, he was without peer before Will Day returned to the midfield.
Mathew Stokes
1. Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
2. Bailey Smith (Geelong)
3. Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions)
Surprise packet: Jordan Dawson was the standout player in an Adelaide team that lacked superstars until the last six to eight games when Izak Rankine stepped up.
Andrew Wu
1. Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
2. Isaac Heeney (Sydney)
3. Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
Surprise packet: Max Gawn. The champion ruckman had a career-best season in terms of possessions, played for a team that won 15 games and no longer has to compete against two generational midfielders for votes. A top-five finish is a distinct possibility.
Scott Spits
1. Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
2. Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
3. Bailey Smith (Geelong)
Surprise packet: Izak Rankine’s hot form late in the season could push him to a high spot on the leaderboard.
Why is Nick Daicos so favoured?
“Ladies and gentlemen, please put your hands together for this year’s Brownlow medallist … Nick Daicos.”
Those are the words you will almost certainly hear on Monday night.
Perhaps the biggest question now is – at what stage of the count will the Collingwood star be confirmed as a first-time medallist?
Will Daicos reach the unbeatable stage at round 20, still with a month of votes to be counted? Or will the 23-year-old dynamo, the hottest of hot favourites, have to endure a nervous flutter or two in the final few rounds? In either case, it will be Daicos on the podium with a glass of champers not long after, and almost certainly with a winning total in the 40s.
Daicos was, unsurprisingly the pre-season Brownlow favourite. After polling 28, 38 and 32 votes in the past three seasons, he was the obvious pick. Those tallies have given him two second-placed finishes (behind Matt Rowell and Patrick Cripps in 2025 and 2024 respectively). In 2023 he was probably the most unlucky, finishing only three votes adrift of winner Lachie Neale as he took the competition by storm for the first time but injury impacted his finish to the home-and-away season.
The other great question surrounding Daicos is exactly how many votes he will accrue. Cripps’ ridiculous and record-breaking season two years ago (45 votes – eight ahead of Daicos) could easily be toppled. Getting to the 50-vote mark is not outside the realm of possibility.
Amid the Brownlow prognostications and permutations, Daicos is variously tipped to finish with anywhere between 38 and 52 votes. A readjustment of votes from The Age footballer of the year award (where five players are given a score out of 10 each game), has Daicos reaching 43 votes. The AFL website’s Brownlow predictor lands on Daicos with 47 votes, with the next player a whopping 13 behind.
He is also the unanimous choice of our experts. (Scroll down to see who they think will finish second and third, and their wildcard choices.)
Any way you look at it – the medal is Daicos’ to lose.
Thus, the other intrigue on Monday night is the chase for second spot. Who should you lean towards? Daylight might be the best answer.
The biggest victim of the Daicos juggernaut is fellow vote-magnet Marcus Bontempelli. At age 30 and surely with seasons of footy still to come, “the Bont” is tracking to become the greatest Brownlow vote-winner in history. The Bulldog is likely to reach third spot on the table (behind Gary Ablett jnr and Patrick Dangerfield) this year. Nothing is guaranteed in footy, and perennial contender Bontempelli might never win Charlie.
A significant change to the Brownlow happened this year as the AFL allowed umpires to access statistics upon request. The league is trying to avoid perceived voting blunders by tinkering with the system. In deciding on the 3-2-1 votes for each match, the umpires can now ask for stats in 16 categories to help their judgment.
Champion Data projections have Isaac Heeney polling in 12 games with five three-vote performances. Heeney is one of five Swans players suspended for breaching the club’s behavioural standards on the night of the Pullman hotel scandal.
The five are eligible to win the Brownlow but are not allowed to attend.
Wanganeen-Milera figures prominently in Champion’s predictions, but interestingly not in the tips of our experts.
Eagle-eyed Brownlow followers will try to assess how this affects voting patterns. The change might mean there’s less chance of a “bolt-from-the-blue” winner, such as West Coast’s Matt Priddis in 2014 or even Rowell last year.
“With the new voting model, which allows umpires to review the post-game statistics, we forecast that the Brownlow will now heavily skew towards favourites in the future. This may make winners like Matt Rowell, who was $17 last year, more unlikely,” says TAB’s senior AFL trader Bart Kennett.
Time will tell what it means for the Brownlow long-term. But, don’t worry, you’ll still hear “N. Daicos, three votes” many times on Monday night.
Here are the latest odds
Nick Daicos $1.01
Bailey Smith $51.00
Marcus Bontempelli $67.00
Patrick Cripps $81.00
Will Ashcroft $101.00
Jordan Dawson $151.00
Lachie Neale $151.00
Max Gawn $151.00
(Via Sportsbet, as of Sunday night)
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Disclaimer : This story is auto aggregated by a computer programme and has not been created or edited by DOWNTHENEWS. Publisher: www.smh.com.au
