TEHRAN- According to the findings of the report “Future Studies of the Role of Research, Education, and Extension in the Development of Iran’s Horticulture,” the “technology-driven development” scenario was introduced as the proposed path for the development of Iran’s horticulture in the horizon of Iranian calendar year 1420 (begins on March 2037).
According to Mehr News Agency, Iran’s horticulture sector, with an annual production of 25 million tons of products and direct employment of more than 800,000 people, is one of the important pillars of the country’s agricultural economy, but it faces challenges including limited water resources, declining productivity, and weakness in the knowledge transfer system.
This study was conducted with the aim of future-studies analysis of the development of Iran’s horticulture and with emphasis on the role of agricultural research, education, and extension, and used data from the Statistical Center of Iran, the Ministry of Agriculture-Jihad, and the Customs of the Islamic Republic of Iran to design scenarios.
To quantify the consequences of each scenario, a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, ARIMA time series models, and Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 iterations were used.
According to the report’s findings, in the “continuation of the existing trend” scenario, agricultural sector employment decreases from 2.07 million people to 1.94 million people, equivalent to a 6 percent decline. In this scenario, the trade balance of horticultural products reaches $4.7 billion.
In the “technology-driven development” scenario, two key assumptions were considered: increasing the research budget to 1.5 percent of the agricultural sector’s value added and achieving 80 percent extension coverage of beneficiaries.
Based on the modeling performed, in this scenario, the value added of the horticulture sector increases by 61 percent, and 480,000 new jobs are created in the value chain. Also, agricultural sector employment will increase by 26 percent.
Another result of this scenario is a 78 percent improvement in water productivity, such that water productivity rises from 18.5 to 33 thousand rials per cubic meter.
Horticultural product exports in this scenario are also estimated at $12 billion, which is 94 percent more than the “continuation of the existing trend” scenario.
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