Saturday’s showdown between No. 10 LSU and No. 23 Texas A&M in Death Valley is essentially an elimination game for the College Football Playoff.
Both teams are coming off losses in Week 3 — LSU at Ole Miss and Texas A&M to Kentucky at home — and can hardly afford another blemish on their record if they’re going to make it to the big dance.
The Bayou Bengals are 8.5-point favorites in this high-stakes battle in Baton Rouge.
Texas A&M vs. LSU odds, pick
LSU got punched in the mouth early against Ole Miss and didn’t have enough to dig its way out of a 24-7 hole at halftime.
The Tigers came close, but Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels had just enough firepower to get the win.
A loss on the road against Ole Miss isn’t a massive cause for concern in the big picture, but the defeat will lead to some questions about quarterback Sam Leavitt.
Perhaps all the drama around Leavitt’s injury last week got in his head, or maybe he was dealing with something, but the Tigers quarterback needs to be sharper if Lane Kiffin is going to bring this team to the promised land.
The story isn’t all that different in College Station.
Mike Elko’s starting quarterback, Marcel Reed, has struggled with accuracy and turnovers. The Aggies saw that firsthand against Kentucky, as Reed completed just 26-of-49 passes and tossed a pair of picks.
The other side of the coin is that Reed tallied 80 yards and a touchdown on the ground, but he’ll need to clean things up against this robust LSU defense.
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With two turnover-prone quarterbacks going up against opportunistic defenses, I’d imagine that both teams are going to put an emphasis on limiting mistakes and taking a more pragmatic approach when they have the ball.
That should lead to a slugfest in Death Valley, which puts value on Under 51.5 points.
The Play: Under 51.5 points (-110, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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