The Liberty begin their 2026 playoff quest in Minnesota on Sunday against the top-seeded Lynx, in a rematch of the 2024 WNBA Finals.
After dropping its last two games to the Dream, Breanna Stewart and company clinched the eighth seed, guaranteeing a matchup with the title favorites.
Minnesota split a home-and-home series against the Fever, with Olivia Miles resting up a calf injury for this playoff opener.
The Liberty enters with two double-digit wins over the Lynx, taking the regular-season series 2-1, but Miles and the Lynx are considerable 6.5-point favorites on the spread for Game 1.
Liberty vs. Lynx prediction, best bet
The Lynx’s 33-11 record secured them the No. 1 overall seed for a second straight season.
Only four of Minnesota’s eleven losses came by ten or more points, and the Liberty handed them two of those defeats. Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and Jonquel Jones are no strangers to the big moment, and perhaps Chris DeMarco’s squad welcomes the challenge.
Other teams might prefer an easier start to the postseason, but the Liberty have a slight edge in experience and, in my opinion, playoff readiness.
All eyes will be on Miles, as the ROY frontrunner makes her postseason debut following a sensational regular season.
Alongside Naphessha Collier, the Lynx are seeking revenge from the Finals two seasons ago, but if the Liberty did indeed play their cards right, I like them to keep things close.
Miles averaged 19 points, six rebounds, and 4.7 assists against the Liberty this season, right in line with her nightly production. But the Liberty’s defense held her below 32 percent shooting in both losses and forced her into five turnovers in their previous win on Sep. 18.
Stewart is also as dependable as it gets in the postseason, boasting an impressive 8-2 career record against the Lynx dating back to her tenure with the Storm.
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Her activity in the paint and high post should test Collier’s defense, and Jones’s presence also poses a tough challenge on the offensive boards, matching up with the shorter Natasha Howard.
Minnesota also lacks depth, as their bench output of 15.4 points per contest ranked lowest in the ‘W.’
I like the Liberty to cover this 6.5 just as they did in the Target Center about a week ago.
Styles make fights, and I believe the physicality and experience from the Liberty’s side, especially from Stewart and Jones manning the paint, could create tense moments for the Lynx.
The Play: Liberty +6.5 (-105, BetMGM)
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