After beating up on three also-rans, reality reared its ugly head for Matt Campbell’s Penn State Nittany Lions in a Week 4 loss to Wisconsin in Happy Valley.
Penn State now heads to Evanston, Ill., to take on pesky Northwestern.
The Wildcats will be opening up the new Ryan Field on Friday night, exactly 100 years after the old one was christened.
Penn State is a three-point favorite on the road.
Penn State vs. Northwestern odds, prediction
Penn State crushed Marshall, Temple and Buffalo by a combined score of 127-22 in their first three games. Based on those results, it looked like Campbell was on the cusp of turning around the Nittany Lions after their disastrous 2025 campaign.
All those good feelings evaporated on Saturday when Penn State played its first decent opponent of the season.
Not only did the Nittany Lions lose to Wisconsin, but it was a putrid effort.
Penn State averaged just 3.6 yards per play, and they blew a 17-7 halftime lead. Even more indicting is the fact that the Badgers won despite turning the ball over three times and racking up 52 yards of penalties (compared to just 15 for Penn State).
Normally, a date with Northwestern would be a get-right spot, but the Wildcats have been humming out of the gate.
Chip Kelly’s offense has been humming with quarterback Aidan Chiles leading the way, and Northwestern just gave Indiana everything it could handle last weekend.
There are still questions to sort out for the Wildcats on defense, but this offense significantly raises the ceiling for the purple and white.
Now, the question is: Has the market adjusted too much, too little or just enough to what we’ve seen from these two teams recently?
Had this game been played last week, Penn State likely would have been at least a seven-point favorite.
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But what we saw from the Nittany Lions against Wisconsin, blended with the effort from Northwestern against Indiana, has changed the calculus. Northwestern has essentially passed every test put in front of it this season, while Penn State flunked its first real challenge.
I think the Wildcats, backed by a massive crowd, are worth a shot on the moneyline, and I wouldn’t shy away from some alternate spreads like Northwestern -6.5.
If Kelly and Chiles are on the same page, the Nittany Lions may struggle to keep up.
The Play: Northwestern moneyline (+120, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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