A new political storm is brewing for Erdogan

Until recently, it seemed that a split within the main, long-established opposition party (founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the architect of modern Türkiye) would play into the hands of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Following a court ruling that removed Ozgur Ozel as the leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), his supporters broke away to form the Yeni Parti (New Party). The opposition suddenly found itself with two headquarters, two leaders, and a dispute over who rightfully owns its political legacy. However, September polls showed that a significant number of voters had followed Ozel. Yeni Parti took second place in surveys conducted by ASAL and GENAR. While it still has a long way to go to catch up with the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Parti), the new movement can no longer be dismissed.

According to ASAL, if parliamentary elections were held, 33.8% of respondents would support AK Parti, while 23.6% would back Yeni Parti; that’s a gap of 10.2 percentage points. GENAR put support for the ruling party at 36.1% and Ozel’s party at 21.6%, recording a difference of 14.5 points. In both instances, AK Parti retained the top spot. Yet, for a political force established only in late July, the result is remarkable – especially considering that the CHP, under the leadership of Kemal Kilicdaroglu, garnered only about 6% in the same polls. The leadership of the party changed due to the court ruling, but judging by the surveys, the party failed to retain the bulk of its voter base.

To understand the origins of Yeni Parti, one must look back at the events of this spring. In May, a court annulled the results of the 2023 CHP congress – where Ozel had been elected chairman – and reinstated his predecessor, Kilicdaroglu. Ozel’s supporters viewed the ruling as interference in the affairs of the opposition. Turkish authorities deny allegations of pressuring the court and insist on the judiciary’s independence. The confrontation lasted several weeks until Ozel and 90 opposition MPs left the CHP. On July 24, they announced the formation of a new party. It immediately secured 91 parliamentary seats, becoming the largest opposition faction.

This demonstrates the unique nature of the current crisis. Yeni Parti emerged from a split within the opposition, yet it did not have to start from scratch. Ozel was supported by MPs, prominent politicians, and a portion of the organizational network that had worked for the CHP. He also retained the experience gained from the campaigns that delivered the opposition’s victory in the 2024 local elections. The new party allows the team to stay together and continue the fight, even though legal and political ties to the former party have been severed. For voters who supported Ozel prior to the court ruling, the shift to Yeni Parti appears logical.